luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 17, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Islanders at Maple Leafs, Mar 17, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Islanders beat the Maple Leafs 3–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P2, 15:20 left): Steven Lorentz scored on a wrist shot from 23 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

Final

New York Islanders 3
Toronto Maple Leafs 1

March 17, 2026 · Scotiabank Arena

Luck index +33 Islanders lucky · −33 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Islanders win 7, Maple Leafs win 3.

  1. 1 NYI 9 TOR 4
  2. 2 NYI 4 TOR 0
  3. 3 NYI 5 TOR 2
  4. 4 NYI 5 TOR 2
  5. 5 NYI 4 TOR 2
  6. 6 NYI 2 TOR 1
  7. 7 NYI 3 TOR 2
  8. 8 NYI 2 TOR 3
  9. 9 NYI 1 TOR 2
  10. 10 NYI 2 TOR 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Islanders win 67% of them, Maple Leafs 33%. The line is what actually happened: Islanders by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Islanders by 3+38.6%
Islanders by 211.3%
Islanders by 117.6%
Maple Leafs by 120.0%
Maple Leafs by 26.0%
Maple Leafs by 3+6.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 goals to the Islanders: the final margin was Islanders by 2, without the luck Islanders by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Islanders5333.63−0.63
Maple Leafs4313.06−2.06

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:30 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Nicholas Robertson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYI
P1 12:42 Hooking on the Islanders (Adam Pelech): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P1 10:26 High sticking on the Maple Leafs (Brandon Carlo): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYI
P2 18:13 Slashing on the Islanders (Adam Pelech): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TOR
P2 17:47 Holding on the Maple Leafs (Dakota Joshua): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYI
P2 5:21 Hooking on the Islanders (Casey Cizikas): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TOR
P2 2:48 Cross checking on the Maple Leafs (Morgan Rielly): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYI
P3 5:03 High sticking double minor on the Maple Leafs (John Tavares): 4 minutes on the power play +3% NYI

When it happened

Maple Leafs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Maple Leafs were ahead in it, below while the Islanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:30 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Nicholas Robertson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% NYI –
2 P1 15:45 Brayden Schenn scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 14% chance +14% NYI –
3 P1 12:42 Hooking on the Islanders (Adam Pelech): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% TOR –
4 P1 10:26 High sticking on the Maple Leafs (Brandon Carlo): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% NYI –
5 P1 10:17 Calum Ritchie scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 23% chance +11% NYI –
6 P2 15:20 Steven Lorentz scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 6% chance +15% TOR –
7 P2 8:03 Emil Heineman scored on a slap shot from 26 feetShooting · 10% chance +15% NYI –
8 P2 5:06 John Tavares’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 27% chance +4% NYI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Islanders 76% · Maple Leafs 24%

Final margin
Islanders by 2
Luck in goals
1.1 for the Islanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Islanders by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Islanders 67% · Maple Leafs 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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