luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 NHL season · Mar 16, 2026 – Mar 22, 2026

NHL week 24: who deserved to win

9 of 56 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Predators beat the Jets 4–3 (SO) in a game they win 23% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 56 games.

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 24 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Predators W 4–3 SO @ Jets Mar 17, 2026 23% +77
2 Mammoth W 6–3 @ Stars Mar 16, 2026 27% +73
3 Penguins W 7–2 @ Avalanche Mar 16, 2026 31% +69
4 Mammoth W 4–0 @ Golden Knights Mar 19, 2026 31% +69
5 Avalanche W 3–2 OT @ Capitals Mar 22, 2026 33% +67
6 Ducks W 4–1 @ Mammoth Mar 20, 2026 35% +65
7 Stars W 2–1 SO @ Avalanche Mar 18, 2026 36% +64
8 Canucks W 5–2 vs Panthers Mar 17, 2026 38% +62
9 Sabres W 2–0 @ Golden Knights Mar 17, 2026 38% +62
10 Bruins W 4–2 @ Red Wings Mar 21, 2026 42% +58
11 Predators W 4–1 vs Golden Knights Mar 21, 2026 42% +58
12 Red Wings W 3–1 vs Canadiens Mar 19, 2026 43% +57
13 Flames W 4–3 OT vs Lightning Mar 22, 2026 45% +55
14 Flyers W 4–3 SO @ Kings Mar 19, 2026 45% +55
15 Capitals W 4–1 vs Senators Mar 18, 2026 45% +55
16 Wild W 2–1 OT vs Stars Mar 21, 2026 46% +54
17 Penguins W 5–4 SO vs Jets Mar 21, 2026 46% +54
18 Mammoth W 6–5 OT vs Kings Mar 22, 2026 48% +52
19 Bruins W 6–1 vs Jets Mar 19, 2026 50% +50
20 Sabres W 5–0 @ Sharks Mar 19, 2026 50% +50
21 Flames W 2–1 SO vs Blues Mar 18, 2026 50% +50
22 Wild W 4–3 OT @ Blackhawks Mar 17, 2026 51% +49
23 Sabres W 4–1 @ Kings Mar 21, 2026 51% +49
24 Oilers W 5–3 vs Sharks Mar 17, 2026 53% +47
25 Panthers W 4–0 @ Oilers Mar 19, 2026 54% +46
26 Ducks W 6–5 OT vs Sabres Mar 22, 2026 55% +45
27 Blue Jackets W 5–2 vs Kraken Mar 21, 2026 55% +45
28 Canadiens W 3–2 OT vs Bruins Mar 17, 2026 55% +45
29 Predators W 3–1 vs Kraken Mar 19, 2026 55% +45
30 Capitals W 2–1 vs Devils Mar 20, 2026 56% +44
31 Devils W 4–3 OT vs Bruins Mar 16, 2026 56% +44
32 Predators W 3–2 OT @ Blackhawks Mar 22, 2026 57% +43
33 Hurricanes W 6–5 OT vs Penguins Mar 18, 2026 57% +43
34 Islanders W 1–0 vs Blue Jackets Mar 22, 2026 57% +43
35 Blackhawks W 2–1 @ Wild Mar 19, 2026 57% +43
36 Lightning W 5–2 @ Oilers Mar 21, 2026 58% +42
37 Jets W 3–2 SO @ Rangers Mar 22, 2026 59% +41
38 Kings W 4–1 @ Rangers Mar 16, 2026 60% +40
39 Blues W 3–1 @ Canucks Mar 21, 2026 61% +39
40 Blue Jackets W 5–1 vs Hurricanes Mar 17, 2026 61% +39
41 Lightning W 6–2 @ Kraken Mar 17, 2026 64% +36
42 Flyers W 3–2 OT @ Ducks Mar 18, 2026 66% +34
43 Hurricanes W 5–1 @ Penguins Mar 22, 2026 66% +34
44 Islanders W 3–1 @ Maple Leafs Mar 17, 2026 67% +33
45 Senators W 3–2 vs Islanders Mar 19, 2026 68% +32
46 Lightning W 6–2 @ Canucks Mar 19, 2026 69% +31
47 Flames W 4–1 vs Panthers Mar 20, 2026 69% +31
48 Hurricanes W 4–3 OT @ Maple Leafs Mar 20, 2026 70% +30
49 Golden Knights W 3–2 @ Stars Mar 22, 2026 71% +29
50 Flyers W 4–1 @ Sharks Mar 21, 2026 71% +29
51 Red Wings W 5–2 vs Flames Mar 16, 2026 72% +28
52 Canadiens W 7–3 vs Islanders Mar 21, 2026 73% +27
53 Blue Jackets W 6–3 vs Rangers Mar 19, 2026 74% +26
54 Senators W 5–2 vs Maple Leafs Mar 21, 2026 78% +22
55 Devils W 6–3 @ Rangers Mar 18, 2026 79% +21
56 Avalanche W 4–1 @ Blackhawks Mar 20, 2026 80% +20
57 Blackhawks L 1–4 vs Avalanche Mar 20, 2026 20% −20
58 Rangers L 3–6 vs Devils Mar 18, 2026 21% −21
59 Maple Leafs L 2–5 @ Senators Mar 21, 2026 22% −22
60 Rangers L 3–6 @ Blue Jackets Mar 19, 2026 26% −26
61 Islanders L 3–7 @ Canadiens Mar 21, 2026 27% −27
62 Flames L 2–5 @ Red Wings Mar 16, 2026 28% −28
63 Sharks L 1–4 vs Flyers Mar 21, 2026 29% −29
64 Stars L 2–3 vs Golden Knights Mar 22, 2026 29% −29
65 Maple Leafs L 3–4 OT vs Hurricanes Mar 20, 2026 30% −30
66 Panthers L 1–4 @ Flames Mar 20, 2026 31% −31
67 Canucks L 2–6 vs Lightning Mar 19, 2026 31% −31
68 Islanders L 2–3 @ Senators Mar 19, 2026 32% −32
69 Maple Leafs L 1–3 vs Islanders Mar 17, 2026 33% −33
70 Penguins L 1–5 vs Hurricanes Mar 22, 2026 34% −34
71 Ducks L 2–3 OT vs Flyers Mar 18, 2026 34% −34
72 Kraken L 2–6 vs Lightning Mar 17, 2026 36% −36
73 Hurricanes L 1–5 @ Blue Jackets Mar 17, 2026 39% −39
74 Canucks L 1–3 vs Blues Mar 21, 2026 39% −39
75 Rangers L 1–4 vs Kings Mar 16, 2026 40% −40
76 Rangers L 2–3 SO vs Jets Mar 22, 2026 41% −41
77 Oilers L 2–5 vs Lightning Mar 21, 2026 42% −42
78 Wild L 1–2 vs Blackhawks Mar 19, 2026 43% −43
79 Blue Jackets L 0–1 @ Islanders Mar 22, 2026 43% −43
80 Penguins L 5–6 OT @ Hurricanes Mar 18, 2026 43% −43
81 Blackhawks L 2–3 OT vs Predators Mar 22, 2026 43% −43
82 Bruins L 3–4 OT @ Devils Mar 16, 2026 44% −44
83 Devils L 1–2 @ Capitals Mar 20, 2026 44% −44
84 Kraken L 1–3 @ Predators Mar 19, 2026 45% −45
85 Bruins L 2–3 OT @ Canadiens Mar 17, 2026 45% −45
86 Kraken L 2–5 @ Blue Jackets Mar 21, 2026 45% −45
87 Sabres L 5–6 OT @ Ducks Mar 22, 2026 45% −45
88 Oilers L 0–4 vs Panthers Mar 19, 2026 46% −46
89 Sharks L 3–5 @ Oilers Mar 17, 2026 47% −47
90 Kings L 1–4 vs Sabres Mar 21, 2026 49% −49
91 Blackhawks L 3–4 OT vs Wild Mar 17, 2026 49% −49
92 Blues L 1–2 SO @ Flames Mar 18, 2026 50% −50
93 Sharks L 0–5 vs Sabres Mar 19, 2026 50% −50
94 Jets L 1–6 @ Bruins Mar 19, 2026 50% −50
95 Kings L 5–6 OT @ Mammoth Mar 22, 2026 52% −52
96 Jets L 4–5 SO @ Penguins Mar 21, 2026 54% −54
97 Stars L 1–2 OT @ Wild Mar 21, 2026 54% −54
98 Senators L 1–4 @ Capitals Mar 18, 2026 55% −55
99 Kings L 3–4 SO vs Flyers Mar 19, 2026 55% −55
100 Lightning L 3–4 OT @ Flames Mar 22, 2026 55% −55
101 Canadiens L 1–3 @ Red Wings Mar 19, 2026 57% −57
102 Golden Knights L 1–4 @ Predators Mar 21, 2026 58% −58
103 Red Wings L 2–4 vs Bruins Mar 21, 2026 58% −58
104 Golden Knights L 0–2 vs Sabres Mar 17, 2026 62% −62
105 Panthers L 2–5 @ Canucks Mar 17, 2026 62% −62
106 Avalanche L 1–2 SO vs Stars Mar 18, 2026 64% −64
107 Mammoth L 1–4 vs Ducks Mar 20, 2026 65% −65
108 Capitals L 2–3 OT vs Avalanche Mar 22, 2026 67% −67
109 Golden Knights L 0–4 vs Mammoth Mar 19, 2026 69% −69
110 Avalanche L 2–7 vs Penguins Mar 16, 2026 69% −69
111 Stars L 3–6 vs Mammoth Mar 16, 2026 73% −73
112 Jets L 3–4 SO vs Predators Mar 17, 2026 77% −77