luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 NHL season · Mar 9, 2026 – Mar 15, 2026

NHL week 23: who deserved to win

12 of 56 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Blackhawks beat the Mammoth 3–2 (OT) in a game they win 23% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 56 games.

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 23 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Blackhawks W 3–2 OT @ Mammoth Mar 12, 2026 23% +77
2 Blues W 3–1 @ Hurricanes Mar 12, 2026 24% +76
3 Predators W 4–2 @ Kraken Mar 10, 2026 27% +73
4 Panthers W 2–1 OT vs Blue Jackets Mar 12, 2026 30% +70
5 Rangers W 4–2 @ Wild Mar 14, 2026 31% +70
6 Flyers W 3–2 SO @ Wild Mar 12, 2026 31% +69
7 Jets W 3–1 vs Avalanche Mar 14, 2026 32% +68
8 Maple Leafs W 4–2 @ Wild Mar 15, 2026 33% +67
9 Flyers W 4–1 vs Capitals Mar 11, 2026 36% +64
10 Rangers W 6–3 @ Jets Mar 12, 2026 36% +64
11 Devils W 6–4 vs Kings Mar 14, 2026 39% +61
12 Panthers W 4–3 vs Red Wings Mar 10, 2026 39% +61
13 Flames W 5–4 @ Devils Mar 12, 2026 41% +59
14 Blues W 3–2 OT vs Oilers Mar 13, 2026 43% +57
15 Capitals W 2–1 @ Sabres Mar 12, 2026 43% +57
16 Jets W 3–2 vs Blues Mar 15, 2026 44% +56
17 Penguins W 4–3 @ Mammoth Mar 14, 2026 44% +56
18 Kraken W 5–2 @ Canucks Mar 14, 2026 44% +56
19 Maple Leafs W 6–4 vs Ducks Mar 12, 2026 45% +55
20 Sharks W 4–2 @ Bruins Mar 12, 2026 47% +53
21 Sharks W 4–2 @ Canadiens Mar 14, 2026 47% +53
22 Senators W 2–0 vs Ducks Mar 14, 2026 47% +53
23 Stars W 7–2 vs Oilers Mar 12, 2026 49% +51
24 Oilers W 4–3 @ Avalanche Mar 10, 2026 49% +51
25 Bruins W 3–2 SO @ Capitals Mar 14, 2026 50% +50
26 Canadiens W 3–2 @ Senators Mar 11, 2026 51% +49
27 Golden Knights W 6–2 vs Penguins Mar 12, 2026 53% +47
28 Rangers W 6–2 @ Flyers Mar 9, 2026 53% +47
29 Stars W 3–2 OT vs Red Wings Mar 14, 2026 53% +47
30 Ducks W 4–3 @ Canadiens Mar 15, 2026 53% +47
31 Kraken W 6–2 vs Panthers Mar 15, 2026 54% +46
32 Islanders W 3–2 vs Flames Mar 14, 2026 54% +46
33 Blue Jackets W 2–1 SO @ Flyers Mar 14, 2026 55% +45
34 Avalanche W 5–1 @ Kraken Mar 12, 2026 59% +41
35 Lightning W 4–1 vs Red Wings Mar 12, 2026 59% +41
36 Sabres W 6–3 vs Sharks Mar 10, 2026 60% +40
37 Blackhawks W 3–2 OT vs Mammoth Mar 9, 2026 60% +40
38 Capitals W 7–3 vs Flames Mar 9, 2026 60% +40
39 Kings W 5–4 OT @ Blue Jackets Mar 9, 2026 60% +40
40 Hurricanes W 4–2 @ Lightning Mar 14, 2026 60% +40
41 Bruins W 2–1 OT vs Kings Mar 10, 2026 61% +39
42 Wild W 5–0 vs Mammoth Mar 10, 2026 61% +39
43 Stars W 2–1 vs Golden Knights Mar 10, 2026 62% +38
44 Kings W 3–2 @ Islanders Mar 13, 2026 62% +38
45 Ducks W 4–1 @ Jets Mar 10, 2026 62% +38
46 Senators W 7–4 vs Sharks Mar 15, 2026 63% +37
47 Canucks W 4–3 SO vs Predators Mar 12, 2026 65% +35
48 Rangers W 4–0 vs Flames Mar 10, 2026 68% +32
49 Hurricanes W 5–4 SO vs Penguins Mar 10, 2026 70% +30
50 Golden Knights W 4–0 vs Blackhawks Mar 14, 2026 71% +29
51 Islanders W 4–3 OT @ Blues Mar 10, 2026 71% +29
52 Senators W 2–0 @ Canucks Mar 9, 2026 73% +27
53 Oilers W 3–1 vs Predators Mar 15, 2026 73% +27
54 Blue Jackets W 5–2 @ Lightning Mar 10, 2026 75% +25
55 Sabres W 3–2 SO vs Maple Leafs Mar 14, 2026 76% +24
56 Canadiens W 3–1 vs Maple Leafs Mar 10, 2026 80% +20
57 Maple Leafs L 1–3 @ Canadiens Mar 10, 2026 20% −20
58 Maple Leafs L 2–3 SO @ Sabres Mar 14, 2026 24% −24
59 Lightning L 2–5 vs Blue Jackets Mar 10, 2026 25% −25
60 Predators L 1–3 @ Oilers Mar 15, 2026 27% −27
61 Canucks L 0–2 vs Senators Mar 9, 2026 27% −27
62 Blues L 3–4 OT vs Islanders Mar 10, 2026 29% −29
63 Blackhawks L 0–4 @ Golden Knights Mar 14, 2026 29% −29
64 Penguins L 4–5 SO @ Hurricanes Mar 10, 2026 30% −30
65 Flames L 0–4 @ Rangers Mar 10, 2026 32% −32
66 Predators L 3–4 SO @ Canucks Mar 12, 2026 35% −35
67 Sharks L 4–7 @ Senators Mar 15, 2026 37% −37
68 Jets L 1–4 vs Ducks Mar 10, 2026 38% −38
69 Islanders L 2–3 vs Kings Mar 13, 2026 38% −38
70 Golden Knights L 1–2 @ Stars Mar 10, 2026 38% −38
71 Mammoth L 0–5 @ Wild Mar 10, 2026 39% −39
72 Kings L 1–2 OT @ Bruins Mar 10, 2026 39% −39
73 Lightning L 2–4 vs Hurricanes Mar 14, 2026 40% −40
74 Blue Jackets L 4–5 OT vs Kings Mar 9, 2026 40% −40
75 Flames L 3–7 @ Capitals Mar 9, 2026 40% −40
76 Mammoth L 2–3 OT @ Blackhawks Mar 9, 2026 40% −40
77 Sharks L 3–6 @ Sabres Mar 10, 2026 40% −40
78 Red Wings L 1–4 @ Lightning Mar 12, 2026 41% −41
79 Kraken L 1–5 vs Avalanche Mar 12, 2026 41% −41
80 Flyers L 1–2 SO vs Blue Jackets Mar 14, 2026 45% −45
81 Flames L 2–3 @ Islanders Mar 14, 2026 46% −46
82 Panthers L 2–6 @ Kraken Mar 15, 2026 46% −46
83 Canadiens L 3–4 vs Ducks Mar 15, 2026 47% −47
84 Red Wings L 2–3 OT @ Stars Mar 14, 2026 47% −47
85 Flyers L 2–6 vs Rangers Mar 9, 2026 47% −47
86 Penguins L 2–6 @ Golden Knights Mar 12, 2026 47% −47
87 Senators L 2–3 vs Canadiens Mar 11, 2026 49% −49
88 Capitals L 2–3 SO vs Bruins Mar 14, 2026 50% −50
89 Avalanche L 3–4 vs Oilers Mar 10, 2026 51% −51
90 Oilers L 2–7 @ Stars Mar 12, 2026 51% −51
91 Ducks L 0–2 @ Senators Mar 14, 2026 53% −53
92 Canadiens L 2–4 vs Sharks Mar 14, 2026 53% −53
93 Bruins L 2–4 vs Sharks Mar 12, 2026 53% −53
94 Ducks L 4–6 @ Maple Leafs Mar 12, 2026 55% −55
95 Canucks L 2–5 vs Kraken Mar 14, 2026 56% −56
96 Mammoth L 3–4 vs Penguins Mar 14, 2026 56% −56
97 Blues L 2–3 @ Jets Mar 15, 2026 56% −56
98 Sabres L 1–2 vs Capitals Mar 12, 2026 57% −57
99 Oilers L 2–3 OT @ Blues Mar 13, 2026 57% −57
100 Devils L 4–5 vs Flames Mar 12, 2026 59% −59
101 Red Wings L 3–4 @ Panthers Mar 10, 2026 61% −61
102 Kings L 4–6 @ Devils Mar 14, 2026 61% −61
103 Jets L 3–6 vs Rangers Mar 12, 2026 64% −64
104 Capitals L 1–4 @ Flyers Mar 11, 2026 64% −64
105 Wild L 2–4 vs Maple Leafs Mar 15, 2026 67% −67
106 Avalanche L 1–3 @ Jets Mar 14, 2026 68% −68
107 Wild L 2–3 SO vs Flyers Mar 12, 2026 69% −69
108 Wild L 2–4 vs Rangers Mar 14, 2026 70% −70
109 Blue Jackets L 1–2 OT @ Panthers Mar 12, 2026 70% −70
110 Kraken L 2–4 vs Predators Mar 10, 2026 73% −73
111 Hurricanes L 1–3 vs Blues Mar 12, 2026 76% −76
112 Mammoth L 2–3 OT vs Blackhawks Mar 12, 2026 77% −77