2025-26 regular season · March 12, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Rangers at Jets, Mar 12, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Rangers beat the Jets 6–3, but the replays lean toward the Jets: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 61 points of win probability to the Rangers.
The game turned on a luck play (P3, 18:45 left): Tye Kartye scored on a tip from 11 feet, worth 24 points of win probability to the Rangers. The biggest single swing (P3, 13:03 left): Gabe Perreault scored on a tip from 9 feet.
Final
 New York Rangers | 6 |
|---|---|
 Winnipeg Jets | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +64 Rangers very lucky · −64 Jets
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rangers win 4, Jets win 6.
- 1 NYR 4 WPG 1
- 2 NYR 2 WPG 1
- 3 NYR 3 WPG 2
- 4 NYR 4 WPG 3
- 5 NYR 2 WPG 3
- 6 NYR 1 WPG 2
- 7 NYR 3 WPG 5
- 8 NYR 0 WPG 2
- 9 NYR 1 WPG 4
- 10 NYR 0 WPG 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Rangers win 36% of them, Jets 64%. The line is what actually happened: Rangers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rangers by 3+ | 7.1% |
| Rangers by 2 | 7.4% |
| Rangers by 1 | 21.8% |
| Jets by 1 | 25.1% |
| Jets by 2 | 13.1% |
| Jets by 3+ | 25.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rangers | 32 | 5 | 1.37 | +3.63 |
 Jets | 43 | 3 | 2.54 | +0.46 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 19:01 | Hooking on the Jets (Gabriel Vilardi): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NYR |
| P1 8:42 | Interference on the Rangers (Vladislav Gavrikov): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P2 9:29 | High sticking on the Jets (Elias Salomonsson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NYR |
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:52 | Adam Fox scored on a slap shot from 49 feetShooting · 5% chance | +15% NYR | – |
| 2 | P2 17:39 | Isak Rosen scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 13% chance | +17% WPG | – |
| 3 | P2 12:24 | Alexis Lafrenière scored on a tip from 14 feetShooting · 7% chance | +19% NYR | – |
| 4 | P2 2:11 | Kyle Connor scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 9% chance | +22% WPG | – |
| 5 | P3 18:45 | The game turned hereTye Kartye scored on a tip from 11 feetShooting · 7% chance | +24% NYR | – |
| 6 | P3 15:41 | Gabriel Vilardi scored on a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 13% chance | +24% WPG | – |
| 7 | P3 13:03 | Gabe Perreault scored on a tip from 9 feetShooting · 8% chance | +28% NYR | – |
| 8 | P3 8:52 | Adam Edstrom scored on a snap shot from 40 feetShooting · 5% chance | +13% NYR | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rangers 74% · Jets 26%
- Final margin
- Rangers by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.0 for the Rangers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rangers by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Rangers 36% · Jets 64% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 23, 2025-26
- Blackhawks at Mammoth Mar 12, 2026 · CHI 3–2 OT · replay 23% for the winner
- Blues at Hurricanes Mar 12, 2026 · STL 3–1 · replay 24% for the winner
- Predators at Kraken Mar 10, 2026 · NSH 4–2 · replay 27% for the winner
- Blue Jackets at Panthers Mar 12, 2026 · FLA 2–1 OT · replay 30% for the winner
- Rangers at Wild Mar 14, 2026 · NYR 4–2 · replay 31% for the winner
- Flyers at Wild Mar 12, 2026 · PHI 3–2 SO · replay 31% for the winner
- Avalanche at Jets Mar 14, 2026 · WPG 3–1 · replay 32% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Wild Mar 15, 2026 · TOR 4–2 · replay 33% for the winner
- Capitals at Flyers Mar 11, 2026 · PHI 4–1 · replay 36% for the winner
- Kings at Devils Mar 14, 2026 · NJD 6–4 · replay 39% for the winner
- Flames at Devils Mar 12, 2026 · CGY 5–4 · replay 41% for the winner
- Oilers at Blues Mar 13, 2026 · STL 3–2 OT · replay 43% for the winner