luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 12, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Wild, Mar 12, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Flyers beat the Wild 3–2, but the replays lean toward the Wild: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Flyers.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Flyers won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Flyers.

Final (SO)

Philadelphia Flyers 3
Minnesota Wild 2

March 12, 2026 · Grand Casino Arena

Luck index +69 Flyers very lucky · −69 Wild

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 3, Wild win 7.

  1. 1 PHI 3 MIN 0
  2. 2 PHI 3 MIN 2
  3. 3 PHI 2 MIN 1
  4. 4 PHI 0 MIN 1
  5. 5 PHI 3 MIN 4
  6. 6 PHI 2 MIN 3
  7. 7 PHI 1 MIN 3
  8. 8 PHI 1 MIN 4
  9. 9 PHI 1 MIN 4
  10. 10 PHI 1 MIN 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Flyers win 31% of them, Wild 69%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+5.9%
Flyers by 26.7%
Flyers by 118.9%
Wild by 124.5%
Wild by 213.4%
Wild by 3+30.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Flyers by 1, without the luck Wild by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers3521.50+0.50
Wild3922.66−0.66

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 12:00 Slashing on the Flyers (Matvei Michkov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MIN
P1 9:08 Hooking on the Wild (Marcus Johansson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 11:46 Slashing on the Flyers (Nick Seeler): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MIN
P3 18:06 Tripping on the Wild (Robby Fabbri): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI
P3 13:52 Interference on the Flyers (Travis Konecny): 2 minutes on the power play +5% MIN
P3 0:52 Too many men on the ice on the Wild (MIN): 2 minutes on the power play +10% PHI
OT 3:25 Holding on the Wild (Quinn Hughes): 2 minutes on the power play +12% PHI

When it happened

Wild’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Wild were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 1:25 Emil Andrae scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 7% chance +17% PHI –
2 P2 11:21 Matt Boldy scored on a wrist shot from 25 feetShooting · 7% chance +20% MIN –
3 P2 2:10 Kirill Kaprizov scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 12% chance +21% MIN –
4 P3 12:02 Owen Tippett scored on a slap shot from 48 feetShooting · 4% chance +29% PHI –
5 P3 1:34 Mats Zuccarello’s wrist shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance +7% PHI –
6 P3 0:52 Too many men on the ice on the Wild (MIN): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +10% PHI –
7 SO The game turned hereThe Flyers won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% PHI –
8 OT 3:25 Holding on the Wild (Quinn Hughes): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% PHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 28% · Wild 72%

Final margin
Flyers by 1
Luck in goals
1.9 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Wild by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 31% · Wild 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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