luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 11, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Capitals at Flyers, Mar 11, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Flyers beat the Capitals 4–1, but the replays lean toward the Capitals: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 33 points of win probability to the Flyers.

The biggest swing (P2, 7:47 left): Trevor Zegras scored on a wrist shot from 13 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Flyers.

Final

Washington Capitals 1
Philadelphia Flyers 4

March 11, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena

Luck index +64 Flyers very lucky · −64 Capitals

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Capitals win 6, Flyers win 4.

  1. 1 WSH 6 PHI 1
  2. 2 WSH 4 PHI 1
  3. 3 WSH 5 PHI 2
  4. 4 WSH 3 PHI 1
  5. 5 WSH 3 PHI 2
  6. 6 WSH 4 PHI 3
  7. 7 WSH 1 PHI 2
  8. 8 WSH 2 PHI 3
  9. 9 WSH 2 PHI 4
  10. 10 WSH 3 PHI 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Capitals win 64% of them, Flyers 36%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Capitals by 3+34.5%
Capitals by 211.2%
Capitals by 118.8%
Flyers by 119.7%
Flyers by 27.0%
Flyers by 3+8.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Flyers by 3, without the luck Flyers by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Capitals5213.62−2.62
Flyers2832.11+0.89

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 15:44 Holding on the Capitals (Timothy Liljegren): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P1 10:57 Hooking on the Flyers (Trevor Zegras): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P1 8:03 Hooking on the Capitals (Jakob Chychrun): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P1 4:46 Tripping on the Flyers (Rasmus Ristolainen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P3 11:14 Slashing on the Flyers (Sean Couturier): 2 minutes on the power play +2% WSH
P3 0:00 Roughing on the Flyers (Nikita Grebenkin): 2 minutes on the power play 0% WSH

When it happened

Flyers’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flyers were ahead in it, below while the Capitals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:44 Holding on the Capitals (Timothy Liljegren): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% PHI –
2 P1 10:57 Hooking on the Flyers (Trevor Zegras): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% WSH –
3 P1 10:09 Ryan Leonard scored on a snap shot from 39 feetShooting · 7% chance +16% WSH –
4 P1 8:03 Hooking on the Capitals (Jakob Chychrun): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% PHI –
5 P1 4:46 Tripping on the Flyers (Rasmus Ristolainen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% WSH –
6 P2 15:37 Travis Konecny scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 9% chance +18% PHI –
7 P2 7:47 Trevor Zegras scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 12% chance +19% PHI –
8 P3 12:43 Jamie Drysdale scored on a wrist shot from 36 feetShooting · 7% chance +13% PHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Capitals 40% · Flyers 60%

Final margin
Flyers by 3
Luck in goals
2.6 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Flyers by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Capitals 64% · Flyers 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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