luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 12, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Capitals at Sabres, Mar 12, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Capitals beat the Sabres 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Capitals win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 37 points of win probability to the Capitals.

The biggest swing (P3, 1:33 left): Jakob Chychrun scored on a snap shot from 26 feet, worth 39 points of win probability to the Capitals.

Final

Washington Capitals 2
Buffalo Sabres 1

March 12, 2026 · KeyBank Center

Luck index +57 Capitals lucky · −57 Sabres

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Capitals win 4, Sabres win 6.

  1. 1 WSH 5 BUF 2
  2. 2 WSH 4 BUF 2
  3. 3 WSH 2 BUF 1
  4. 4 WSH 4 BUF 3
  5. 5 WSH 1 BUF 2
  6. 6 WSH 1 BUF 2
  7. 7 WSH 2 BUF 4
  8. 8 WSH 1 BUF 4
  9. 9 WSH 1 BUF 4
  10. 10 WSH 1 BUF 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Capitals win 43% of them, Sabres 57%. The line is what actually happened: Capitals by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Capitals by 3+15.1%
Capitals by 28.9%
Capitals by 119.1%
Sabres by 118.7%
Sabres by 210.4%
Sabres by 3+27.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 goals to the Capitals: the final margin was Capitals by 1, without the luck Capitals by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Capitals3922.69−0.69
Sabres5013.24−2.24

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 2:10 Hooking on the Capitals (Connor McMichael): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P2 7:10 Slashing on the Sabres (Tanner Pearson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WSH
P2 3:19 Holding on the Capitals (Martin Fehérváry): 2 minutes on the power play +6% BUF
P3 13:52 Holding on the Sabres (Logan Stanley): 2 minutes on the power play +7% WSH

When it happened

Sabres’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Sabres were ahead in it, below while the Capitals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:58 Sam Carrick scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 6% chance +15% BUF –
2 P2 17:46 Ryan Leonard scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 7% chance +18% WSH –
3 P2 3:19 Holding on the Capitals (Martin Fehérváry): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% BUF –
4 P3 17:42 Tom Wilson’s snap shot from 16 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance +6% BUF –
5 P3 13:52 Holding on the Sabres (Logan Stanley): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +7% WSH –
6 P3 4:21 Trevor van Riemsdyk’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance +9% BUF –
7 P3 1:40 Aliaksei Protas missed the net with a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 13% chance +6% BUF –
8 P3 1:33 Jakob Chychrun scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 11% chance +39% WSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Capitals 57% · Sabres 43%

Final margin
Capitals by 1
Luck in goals
0.7 for the Capitals
Luck-adjusted margin
Capitals by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Capitals 43% · Sabres 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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