2025-26 regular season · March 14, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Penguins at Mammoth, Mar 14, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Penguins beat the Mammoth 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Penguins win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 37 points of win probability to the Penguins.
The game turned on a luck play (P3, 18:36 left): Bryan Rust scored on a snap shot from 19 feet, worth 22 points of win probability to the Penguins. The biggest single swing (P3, 15:43 left): Ian Cole scored on a wrist shot from 31 feet.
Final
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 4 |
|---|---|
 Utah Mammoth | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Penguins lucky · −56 Mammoth
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Penguins win 4, Mammoth win 6.
- 1 PIT 6 UTA 2
- 2 PIT 3 UTA 0
- 3 PIT 5 UTA 4
- 4 PIT 2 UTA 1
- 5 PIT 3 UTA 4
- 6 PIT 2 UTA 3
- 7 PIT 2 UTA 4
- 8 PIT 4 UTA 6
- 9 PIT 3 UTA 6
- 10 PIT 0 UTA 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Penguins win 44% of them, Mammoth 56%. The line is what actually happened: Penguins by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Penguins by 3+ | 15.1% |
| Penguins by 2 | 8.8% |
| Penguins by 1 | 20.2% |
| Mammoth by 1 | 22.8% |
| Mammoth by 2 | 9.7% |
| Mammoth by 3+ | 23.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Penguins | 33 | 4 | 2.49 | +1.51 |
 Mammoth | 47 | 3 | 3.59 | −0.59 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 14:06 | Cross checking on the Penguins (Anthony Mantha): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% UTA |
| P1 3:16 | Slashing on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% PIT |
| P2 15:55 | Slashing on the Penguins (Ilya Solovyov): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% UTA |
| P2 14:43 | Slashing on the Mammoth (Barrett Hayton): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% PIT |
| P2 10:38 | Hooking on the Mammoth (JJ Peterka): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% PIT |
| P2 6:21 | High sticking on the Mammoth (Lawson Crouse): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% PIT |
| P2 5:48 | Interference on the Mammoth (Alexander Kerfoot): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% PIT |
| P2 0:16 | Hooking on the Mammoth (Ian Cole): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% PIT |
| P3 8:41 | Tripping on the Penguins (Connor Dewar): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% UTA |
When it happened
Mammoth’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 14:54 | Dylan Guenther scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 7% chance | +15% UTA | – |
| 2 | P1 13:23 | Dylan Guenther scored on a deflected shot from 4 feetShooting · 22% chance | +10% UTA | – |
| 3 | P2 5:12 | Anthony Mantha scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 16% chance | +13% PIT | – |
| 4 | P2 2:34 | Tommy Novak scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 10% chance | +21% PIT | – |
| 5 | P3 18:36 | The game turned hereBryan Rust scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 19% chance | +22% PIT | – |
| 6 | P3 15:43 | Ian Cole scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 6% chance | +26% UTA | – |
| 7 | P3 11:57 | Noel Acciari scored on a snap shot from 5 feetShooting · 25% chance | +23% PIT | – |
| 8 | P3 2:30 | Michael Carcone’s snap shot from 21 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance | +9% PIT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Penguins 33% · Mammoth 67%
- Final margin
- Penguins by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for the Penguins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Mammoth by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Penguins 44% · Mammoth 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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