2025-26 regular season · March 14, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Avalanche at Jets, Mar 14, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Jets beat the Avalanche 3–1, but the replays lean toward the Avalanche: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Jets.
The biggest swing (P2, 17:55 left): Kyle Connor scored on a wrist shot from 31 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Jets.
Final
 Colorado Avalanche | 1 |
|---|---|
 Winnipeg Jets | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +68 Jets very lucky · −68 Avalanche
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Avalanche win 7, Jets win 3.
- 1 COL 4 WPG 0
- 2 COL 3 WPG 0
- 3 COL 3 WPG 0
- 4 COL 4 WPG 2
- 5 COL 4 WPG 2
- 6 COL 2 WPG 1
- 7 COL 2 WPG 1
- 8 COL 1 WPG 2
- 9 COL 1 WPG 2
- 10 COL 0 WPG 2
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Avalanche win 68% of them, Jets 32%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Avalanche by 3+ | 30.5% |
| Avalanche by 2 | 13.9% |
| Avalanche by 1 | 23.9% |
| Jets by 1 | 21.6% |
| Jets by 2 | 5.9% |
| Jets by 3+ | 4.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Avalanche | 52 | 1 | 3.31 | −2.31 |
 Jets | 27 | 2 | 1.06 | +0.94 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 9:48 | Roughing on the Avalanche (Brock Nelson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P1 0:21 | Holding on the Jets (Mark Scheifele): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% COL |
| P3 19:45 | High sticking on the Jets (Jacob Bryson): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% COL |
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 9:48 | Roughing on the Avalanche (Brock Nelson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% WPG | – |
| 2 | P1 2:50 | Nazem Kadri’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 14% chance | +3% WPG | – |
| 3 | P1 0:21 | Holding on the Jets (Mark Scheifele): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% COL | – |
| 4 | P2 17:55 | Kyle Connor scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 8% chance | +17% WPG | – |
| 5 | P2 8:08 | Alex Iafallo scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 14% chance | +13% WPG | – |
| 6 | P3 19:35 | Brock Nelson’s wrist shot from 13 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance | +3% WPG | – |
| 7 | P3 19:34 | Nathan MacKinnon missed the net with a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 18% chance | +3% WPG | – |
| 8 | P3 1:16 | Martin Necas scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 9% chance | +5% COL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Avalanche 41% · Jets 59%
- Final margin
- Jets by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Avalanche 68% · Jets 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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