luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 12, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Blackhawks at Mammoth, Mar 12, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Blackhawks beat the Mammoth 3–2, but the replays lean toward the Mammoth: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Blackhawks won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.

Final (OT)

Chicago Blackhawks 3
Utah Mammoth 2

March 12, 2026 · Delta Center

Luck index +77 Blackhawks very lucky · −77 Mammoth

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Blackhawks win 2, Mammoth win 8.

  1. 1 CHI 2 UTA 0
  2. 2 CHI 3 UTA 2
  3. 3 CHI 1 UTA 2
  4. 4 CHI 3 UTA 4
  5. 5 CHI 1 UTA 3
  6. 6 CHI 1 UTA 4
  7. 7 CHI 0 UTA 3
  8. 8 CHI 0 UTA 4
  9. 9 CHI 2 UTA 7
  10. 10 CHI 1 UTA 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Blackhawks win 23% of them, Mammoth 77%. The line is what actually happened: Blackhawks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Blackhawks by 3+4.2%
Blackhawks by 24.2%
Blackhawks by 115.0%
Mammoth by 116.0%
Mammoth by 212.3%
Mammoth by 3+48.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 goals to the Blackhawks: the final margin was Blackhawks by 1, without the luck Mammoth by 1.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Blackhawks2721.73+0.27
Mammoth5224.20−2.20

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P3 18:26 High sticking on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CHI
P3 8:42 High sticking on the Blackhawks (Artyom Levshunov): 2 minutes on the power play +6% UTA

When it happened

Mammoth’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Mammoth were ahead in it, below while the Blackhawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 14:13 Dylan Guenther scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 16% chance +17% UTA –
2 P3 18:35 Clayton Keller’s slap shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 51% chance +7% CHI –
3 P3 17:42 Tyler Bertuzzi scored on a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 30% chance +18% CHI –
4 P3 10:43 Frank Nazar scored on a snap shot from 5 feetShooting · 20% chance +26% CHI –
5 P3 7:52 Clayton Keller’s snap shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 28% chance +10% CHI –
6 P3 6:15 JJ Peterka scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 10% chance +33% UTA –
7 P3 4:43 Lawson Crouse missed the net with a slap shot from 26 feetShooting · 15% chance +6% CHI –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Blackhawks won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% CHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Blackhawks 13% · Mammoth 87%

Final margin
Blackhawks by 1
Luck in goals
2.9 for the Blackhawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Mammoth by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Blackhawks 23% · Mammoth 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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