2025-26 regular season · March 12, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Sharks at Bruins, Mar 12, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Sharks beat the Bruins 4–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Sharks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 36 points of win probability to the Sharks.
The biggest swing (P1, 14:03 left): Michael Misa scored on a wrist shot from 7 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Sharks.
Final
 San Jose Sharks | 4 |
|---|---|
 Boston Bruins | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +53 Sharks lucky · −53 Bruins
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sharks win 5, Bruins win 5.
- 1 SJS 6 BOS 2
- 2 SJS 5 BOS 2
- 3 SJS 5 BOS 3
- 4 SJS 3 BOS 2
- 5 SJS 5 BOS 4
- 6 SJS 2 BOS 3
- 7 SJS 4 BOS 5
- 8 SJS 3 BOS 5
- 9 SJS 1 BOS 4
- 10 SJS 0 BOS 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Sharks win 47% of them, Bruins 53%. The line is what actually happened: Sharks by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sharks by 3+ | 18.5% |
| Sharks by 2 | 10.1% |
| Sharks by 1 | 18.2% |
| Bruins by 1 | 20.7% |
| Bruins by 2 | 9.1% |
| Bruins by 3+ | 23.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sharks | 38 | 4 | 3.08 | +0.92 |
 Bruins | 58 | 2 | 3.97 | −1.97 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 12:46 | Holding on the Sharks (John Klingberg): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P2 6:11 | High sticking on the Bruins (Mason Lohrei): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% SJS |
| P3 17:00 | Hooking on the Sharks (Barclay Goodrow): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% BOS |
| P3 0:10 | Elbowing on the Bruins (Charlie McAvoy): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% SJS |
When it happened
Bruins’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 14:03 | Michael Misa scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 10% chance | +15% SJS | – |
| 2 | P1 12:46 | Holding on the Sharks (John Klingberg): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% BOS | – |
| 3 | P1 11:31 | Fraser Minten’s wrist shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance | +3% SJS | – |
| 4 | P2 6:11 | High sticking on the Bruins (Mason Lohrei): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% SJS | – |
| 5 | P2 5:54 | Tyler Toffoli’s wrist shot from 15 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance | +3% BOS | – |
| 6 | P2 5:45 | Tyler Toffoli scored on a deflected shot from 5 feetShooting · 17% chance | +14% SJS | – |
| 7 | P2 3:43 | Pavel Zacha missed the net with a bat shot from 6 feetShooting · 17% chance | +3% SJS | – |
| 8 | P3 16:47 | Collin Graf scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 16% chance | +5% SJS | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sharks 53% · Bruins 47%
- Final margin
- Sharks by 2
- Luck in goals
- 2.2 for the Sharks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bruins by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Sharks 47% · Bruins 53% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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