luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 14, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Kraken at Canucks, Mar 14, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Kraken beat the Canucks 5–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Kraken win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 27 points of win probability to the Kraken.

The biggest swing (P1, 0:50 left): Bobby McMann scored on a wrist shot from 35 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Kraken.

Final

Seattle Kraken 5
Vancouver Canucks 2

March 14, 2026 · Rogers Arena

Luck index +56 Kraken lucky · −56 Canucks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kraken win 4, Canucks win 6.

  1. 1 SEA 6 VAN 3
  2. 2 SEA 6 VAN 4
  3. 3 SEA 5 VAN 4
  4. 4 SEA 4 VAN 3
  5. 5 SEA 4 VAN 5
  6. 6 SEA 4 VAN 5
  7. 7 SEA 1 VAN 3
  8. 8 SEA 3 VAN 6
  9. 9 SEA 2 VAN 5
  10. 10 SEA 3 VAN 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Kraken win 44% of them, Canucks 56%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kraken by 3+13.1%
Kraken by 29.8%
Kraken by 121.0%
Canucks by 122.6%
Canucks by 210.9%
Canucks by 3+22.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 goals to the Kraken: the final margin was Kraken by 3, without the luck Kraken by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Kraken4452.34+2.66
Canucks4822.88−0.88

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 1:17 Holding on the Canucks (Tom Willander): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P2 18:15 High sticking on the Kraken (Ryker Evans): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P3 12:31 Tripping on the Kraken (Ryan Lindgren): 2 minutes on the power play +1% VAN
P3 7:29 Delaying game puck over glass on the Canucks (Nikita Tolopilo): 2 minutes on the power play 0% SEA
P3 4:57 Hooking on the Canucks (Tom Willander): 2 minutes on the power play 0% SEA

When it happened

Canucks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canucks were ahead in it, below while the Kraken were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:48 Jared McCann scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% SEA –
2 P1 8:18 Evander Kane scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance +16% VAN –
3 P1 1:17 Holding on the Canucks (Tom Willander): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% SEA –
4 P1 0:50 Bobby McMann scored on a wrist shot from 35 feetShooting · 4% chance +18% SEA –
5 P2 18:15 High sticking on the Kraken (Ryker Evans): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% VAN –
6 P2 17:59 Jake DeBrusk missed the net with a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 19% chance +4% SEA –
7 P2 14:54 Jamie Oleksiak scored on a wrist shot from 33 feetShooting · 6% chance +15% SEA –
8 P3 15:46 Bobby McMann scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 17% chance +5% SEA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kraken 60% · Canucks 40%

Final margin
Kraken by 3
Luck in goals
2.7 for the Kraken
Luck-adjusted margin
Kraken by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Kraken 44% · Canucks 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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