luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 14, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Sharks at Canadiens, Mar 14, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Sharks beat the Canadiens 4–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Sharks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Sharks.

The biggest swing (P2, 8:04 left): Mario Ferraro scored on a snap shot from 60 feet, worth 22 points of win probability to the Sharks.

Final

San Jose Sharks 4
Montreal Canadiens 2

March 14, 2026 · Centre Bell

Luck index +53 Sharks lucky · −53 Canadiens

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sharks win 5, Canadiens win 5.

  1. 1 SJS 5 MTL 1
  2. 2 SJS 6 MTL 3
  3. 3 SJS 4 MTL 2
  4. 4 SJS 4 MTL 3
  5. 5 SJS 3 MTL 2
  6. 6 SJS 3 MTL 4
  7. 7 SJS 1 MTL 2
  8. 8 SJS 0 MTL 2
  9. 9 SJS 1 MTL 4
  10. 10 SJS 2 MTL 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Sharks win 47% of them, Canadiens 53%. The line is what actually happened: Sharks by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Sharks by 3+19.9%
Sharks by 28.6%
Sharks by 118.5%
Canadiens by 119.8%
Canadiens by 29.3%
Canadiens by 3+23.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 goals to the Sharks: the final margin was Sharks by 2, without the luck Sharks by 1.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Sharks4033.33−0.33
Canadiens4723.72−1.72

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:32 Roughing on the Sharks (Vincent Desharnais): 2 minutes on the power play +3% MTL
P1 2:03 Cross checking on the Sharks (Macklin Celebrini): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P2 19:22 Too many men on the ice on the Canadiens (MTL): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P3 16:53 Too many men on the ice on the Sharks (SJS): 2 minutes on the power play +5% MTL

When it happened

Canadiens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canadiens were ahead in it, below while the Sharks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 12:39 Cole Caufield scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% MTL –
2 P1 6:48 Macklin Celebrini scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 10% chance +15% SJS –
3 P1 1:16 Kirby Dach missed the net with a slap shot from 4 feetShooting · 55% chance +10% SJS –
4 P2 8:04 Mario Ferraro scored on a snap shot from 60 feetShooting · 2% chance +22% SJS –
5 P2 3:40 Collin Graf scored on a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 23% chance +13% SJS –
6 P2 2:22 Nick Suzuki scored on a snap shot from 35 feetShooting · 8% chance +15% MTL –
7 P3 16:53 Too many men on the ice on the Sharks (SJS): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% MTL –
8 P3 9:33 Oliver Kapanen hit the crossbar with a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 15% chance +5% SJS –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sharks 80% · Canadiens 20%

Final margin
Sharks by 2
Luck in goals
0.3 for the Sharks
Luck-adjusted margin
Sharks by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Sharks 47% · Canadiens 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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