luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 9, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Senators at Canucks, Mar 9, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Senators beat the Canucks 2–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Canucks had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 23 points of win probability to the Canucks.

The biggest swing (P2, 9:49 left): Ridly Greig scored on a wrist shot from 8 feet, worth 23 points of win probability to the Senators.

Final

Ottawa Senators 2
Vancouver Canucks 0

March 9, 2026 · Rogers Arena

Luck index +27 Senators lucky · −27 Canucks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Senators win 7, Canucks win 3.

  1. 1 OTT 5 VAN 0
  2. 2 OTT 6 VAN 2
  3. 3 OTT 4 VAN 1
  4. 4 OTT 5 VAN 2
  5. 5 OTT 4 VAN 2
  6. 6 OTT 3 VAN 2
  7. 7 OTT 5 VAN 4
  8. 8 OTT 2 VAN 3
  9. 9 OTT 1 VAN 2
  10. 10 OTT 0 VAN 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Senators win 73% of them, Canucks 27%. The line is what actually happened: Senators by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Senators by 3+40.6%
Senators by 214.1%
Senators by 118.0%
Canucks by 118.6%
Canucks by 24.6%
Canucks by 3+4.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 goals to the Canucks: the final margin was Senators by 2, without the luck Senators by 2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Senators3713.02−2.02
Canucks2801.34−1.34

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:02 Cross checking on the Canucks (Elias Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P2 13:02 Slashing on the Senators (Thomas Chabot): 2 minutes on the power play +5% VAN
P2 11:59 Interference on the Canucks (Linus Karlsson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% OTT
P2 9:49 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Canucks (VAN): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P3 18:39 Holding the stick on the Canucks (Marcus Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% OTT
P3 11:29 Interference on the Senators (Thomas Chabot): 2 minutes on the power play +5% VAN
P3 6:16 Hooking on the Senators (Warren Foegele): 2 minutes on the power play +6% VAN

When it happened

Canucks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canucks were ahead in it, below while the Senators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 13:02 Slashing on the Senators (Thomas Chabot): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% VAN –
2 P2 11:59 Interference on the Canucks (Linus Karlsson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% OTT –
3 P2 9:49 Ridly Greig scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 13% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Canucks (VAN): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +23% OTT –
4 P3 18:39 Holding the stick on the Canucks (Marcus Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% OTT –
5 P3 16:49 Warren Foegele missed the net with a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 26% chance +4% VAN –
6 P3 11:29 Interference on the Senators (Thomas Chabot): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% VAN –
7 P3 6:16 Hooking on the Senators (Warren Foegele): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% VAN –
8 P3 4:11 Nils Hoglander missed the net with a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance +4% OTT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Senators 90% · Canucks 10%

Final margin
Senators by 2
Luck in goals
0.1 for the Canucks
Luck-adjusted margin
Senators by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Senators 73% · Canucks 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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