luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 14, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Sabres, Mar 14, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Sabres beat the Maple Leafs 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Maple Leafs had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 35 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

The biggest swing (SO): the Sabres won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Sabres.

Final (SO)

Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Buffalo Sabres 3

March 14, 2026 · KeyBank Center

Luck index +24 Sabres about even · −24 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 2, Sabres win 8.

  1. 1 TOR 3 BUF 1
  2. 2 TOR 4 BUF 3
  3. 3 TOR 3 BUF 4
  4. 4 TOR 1 BUF 2
  5. 5 TOR 0 BUF 2
  6. 6 TOR 2 BUF 5
  7. 7 TOR 4 BUF 7
  8. 8 TOR 2 BUF 5
  9. 9 TOR 1 BUF 5
  10. 10 TOR 1 BUF 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 24% of them, Sabres 76%. The line is what actually happened: Sabres by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+4.1%
Maple Leafs by 24.3%
Maple Leafs by 116.1%
Sabres by 118.6%
Sabres by 212.0%
Sabres by 3+45.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 goals to the Maple Leafs: the final margin was Sabres by 1, without the luck Sabres by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs2621.55+0.45
Sabres5423.64−1.64

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:26 Holding on the Maple Leafs (Michael Pezzetta): 2 minutes on the power play +3% BUF
P1 9:08 Cross checking on the Maple Leafs (Oliver Ekman-Larsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P1 4:38 Interference goalkeeper on the Sabres (Noah Ostlund): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 13:18 Interference on the Sabres (Rasmus Dahlin): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 10:09 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Michael Pezzetta): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P3 13:29 Holding on the Maple Leafs (Matthew Knies): 2 minutes on the power play +7% BUF

When it happened

Sabres’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Sabres were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:59 Owen Power scored on a wrist shot from 37 feetShooting · 5% chance +15% BUF –
2 P1 13:51 Dakota Joshua scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 16% chance +13% TOR –
3 P2 19:07 Max Domi scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 7% chance +18% TOR –
4 P2 8:39 Jack Quinn scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 5% chance +21% BUF –
5 P3 13:29 Holding on the Maple Leafs (Matthew Knies): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +7% BUF –
6 P3 9:47 Beck Malenstyn missed the net with a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 15% chance +5% TOR –
7 P3 1:19 Tage Thompson missed the net with a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance +5% TOR –
8 SO The Sabres won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +51% BUF –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 17% · Sabres 83%

Final margin
Sabres by 1
Luck in goals
0.6 for the Maple Leafs
Luck-adjusted margin
Sabres by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 24% · Sabres 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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