luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 15, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Panthers at Kraken, Mar 15, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Kraken beat the Panthers 6–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Kraken win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 25 points of win probability to the Kraken.

The biggest swing (P1, 14:32 left): Ben Meyers scored on a deflected shot from 5 feet, worth 13 points of win probability to the Kraken.

Final

Florida Panthers 2
Seattle Kraken 6

March 15, 2026 · Climate Pledge Arena

Luck index +46 Kraken lucky · −46 Panthers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 5, Kraken win 5.

  1. 1 FLA 7 SEA 3
  2. 2 FLA 5 SEA 2
  3. 3 FLA 4 SEA 2
  4. 4 FLA 2 SEA 1
  5. 5 FLA 4 SEA 3
  6. 6 FLA 3 SEA 4
  7. 7 FLA 2 SEA 3
  8. 8 FLA 2 SEA 4
  9. 9 FLA 2 SEA 5
  10. 10 FLA 1 SEA 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Panthers win 46% of them, Kraken 54%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 3+17.2%
Panthers by 29.5%
Panthers by 119.6%
Kraken by 122.1%
Kraken by 210.7%
Kraken by 3+20.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 goals to the Kraken: the final margin was Kraken by 4, without the luck Kraken by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Panthers5222.70−0.70
Kraken3462.51+3.49

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 6:30 Holding on the Kraken (Ryan Lindgren): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P2 12:37 High sticking on the Kraken (Chandler Stephenson): 2 minutes on the power play +1% FLA
P2 11:33 High sticking on the Kraken (Eeli Tolvanen): 2 minutes on the power play +1% FLA
P2 8:32 Roughing on the Panthers (Luke Kunin): 2 minutes on the power play +1% SEA
P3 18:42 High sticking on the Panthers (Evan Rodrigues): 2 minutes on the power play +1% SEA
P3 10:59 Interference on the Panthers (Anton Lundell): 2 minutes on the power play 0% SEA
P3 9:22 Holding on the Panthers (Aaron Ekblad): 2 minutes on the power play 0% SEA
P3 8:16 Interference on the Kraken (Brandon Montour): 2 minutes on the power play 0% FLA

When it happened

Kraken’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Kraken were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:03 Carter Verhaeghe’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance +3% SEA –
2 P1 14:32 Ben Meyers scored on a deflected shot from 5 feetShooting · 16% chance +13% SEA –
3 P1 8:08 Berkly Catton scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 15% chance +11% SEA –
4 P1 7:53 Vinnie Hinostroza scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 12% chance +12% FLA –
5 P1 6:30 Holding on the Kraken (Ryan Lindgren): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% FLA –
6 P1 1:52 Anton Lundell missed the net with a tip from 6 feetShooting · 10% chance +2% SEA –
7 P1 1:36 Ryan Winterton scored on a bat shot from 5 feetShooting · 11% chance +12% SEA –
8 P2 16:40 Kaapo Kakko scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 12% chance +7% SEA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 34% · Kraken 66%

Final margin
Kraken by 4
Luck in goals
3.1 for the Kraken
Luck-adjusted margin
Kraken by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 46% · Kraken 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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