2025-26 NHL season · Mar 2, 2026 – Mar 8, 2026

NHL week 22: who deserved to win

5 of 55 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Canadiens beat the Kings 4–3 in a game they win 23% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 55 games.

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Canadiens lucky 4

Kings unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 23% of replays

Panthers lucky 3

Red Wings unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Panthers win 30% of replays

Canucks lucky 6

Blackhawks unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Canucks win 31% of replays

Flyers lucky 4

Penguins unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Flyers win 38% of replays

Mammoth lucky 5

Blue Jackets unlucky 4 Replays favor loser · Mammoth win 39% of replays

Islanders 2

Sharks 1 Coin flip · Islanders win 42% of replays

Panthers 2

Blue Jackets 4 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 42% of replays

Blues 3

Sharks 2 Coin flip · Blues win 42% of replays

Penguins 1

Bruins 2 Coin flip · Bruins win 42% of replays

Avalanche 5

Stars 4 Coin flip · Avalanche win 43% of replays

Hurricanes 4

Flames 5 Coin flip · Flames win 43% of replays

Golden Knights 4

Red Wings 3 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 43% of replays

Wild 4

Golden Knights 2 Coin flip · Wild win 43% of replays

Islanders 1

Ducks 5 Coin flip · Ducks win 44% of replays

Blue Jackets 5

Rangers 4 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 44% of replays

Blues 3

Kraken 2 Coin flip · Blues win 45% of replays

Hurricanes 1

Kraken 2 Coin flip · Kraken win 46% of replays

Golden Knights 2

Sabres 3 Coin flip · Sabres win 46% of replays

Flyers 3

Maple Leafs 2 Coin flip · Flyers win 47% of replays

Canadiens 5

Sharks 7 Coin flip · Sharks win 47% of replays

Oilers 4

Golden Knights 2 Coin flip · Oilers win 48% of replays

Avalanche 5

Ducks 1 Coin flip · Avalanche win 48% of replays

Lightning 7

Sabres 8 Coin flip · Sabres win 48% of replays

Predators 2

Blue Jackets 3 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 48% of replays

Red Wings 4

Predators 2 Coin flip · Red Wings win 49% of replays

Mammoth 3

Capitals 2 Coin flip · Mammoth win 49% of replays

Predators 2

Sabres 3 Coin flip · Sabres win 50% of replays

Canadiens 5

Ducks 6 Coin flip · Ducks win 52% of replays

Maple Leafs 2

Rangers 6 Coin flip · Rangers win 53% of replays

Mammoth 3

Flyers 0 Coin flip · Mammoth win 53% of replays

Panthers 1

Devils 5 Coin flip · Devils win 55% of replays

Lightning 5

Maple Leafs 2 Coin flip · Lightning win 55% of replays

Lightning 1

Wild 5 Coin flip · Wild win 56% of replays

Red Wings 3

Devils 0 Coin flip · Red Wings win 58% of replays

Sabres 5

Penguins 1 Coin flip · Sabres win 60% of replays

Lightning 1

Jets 4 Coin flip · Jets win 60% of replays

Islanders 3

Kings 5 Replays agree · Kings win 61% of replays

Rangers 3

Devils 6 Replays agree · Devils win 61% of replays

Bruins 3

Predators 6 Replays agree · Predators win 61% of replays

Hurricanes 6

Oilers 3 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 62% of replays

Blackhawks 2

Jets 3 Replays agree · Jets win 62% of replays

Capitals 1

Bruins 3 Replays agree · Bruins win 63% of replays

Canucks 2

Jets 3 Replays agree · Jets win 64% of replays

Senators 4

Oilers 5 Replays agree · Oilers win 64% of replays

Bruins 4

Penguins 5 Replays agree · Penguins win 65% of replays

Hurricanes 6

Canucks 4 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 65% of replays

Maple Leafs 3

Devils 4 Replays agree · Devils win 68% of replays

Senators 7

Kraken 4 Replays agree · Senators win 69% of replays

Blackhawks 3

Stars 4 Replays agree · Stars win 69% of replays

Stars 6

Flames 1 Replays agree · Stars win 70% of replays

Wild 2

Avalanche 3 Replays agree · Avalanche win 74% of replays

Senators 4

Flames 1 Replays agree · Senators win 75% of replays

Avalanche 4

Kings 2 Replays agree · Avalanche win 75% of replays

Blues 4

Ducks 0 Replays agree · Blues win 79% of replays

Stars 6

Canucks 1 Replays agree · Stars win 81% of replays

Week 22 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.

#	Team	Game	Wins the replay	Luck index
1	Canadiens	W 4–3 @ Kings Mar 7, 2026	23%	+77
2	Panthers	W 3–1 @ Red Wings Mar 6, 2026	30%	+70
3	Canucks	W 6–3 @ Blackhawks Mar 6, 2026	31%	+69
4	Flyers	W 4–3 SO @ Penguins Mar 7, 2026	38%	+62
5	Mammoth	W 5–4 OT @ Blue Jackets Mar 7, 2026	39%	+61
6	Islanders	W 2–1 OT @ Sharks Mar 7, 2026	42%	+58
7	Blue Jackets	W 4–2 vs Panthers Mar 5, 2026	42%	+58
8	Blues	W 3–2 OT @ Sharks Mar 6, 2026	42%	+58
9	Bruins	W 2–1 vs Penguins Mar 3, 2026	42%	+58
10	Avalanche	W 5–4 SO @ Stars Mar 6, 2026	43%	+57
11	Flames	W 5–4 vs Hurricanes Mar 7, 2026	43%	+57
12	Golden Knights	W 4–3 OT @ Red Wings Mar 4, 2026	43%	+57
13	Wild	W 4–2 @ Golden Knights Mar 6, 2026	43%	+57
14	Ducks	W 5–1 vs Islanders Mar 4, 2026	44%	+56
15	Blue Jackets	W 5–4 OT @ Rangers Mar 2, 2026	44%	+56
16	Blues	W 3–2 @ Kraken Mar 4, 2026	45%	+55
17	Kraken	W 2–1 vs Hurricanes Mar 2, 2026	46%	+54
18	Sabres	W 3–2 vs Golden Knights Mar 3, 2026	46%	+54
19	Flyers	W 3–2 SO @ Maple Leafs Mar 2, 2026	47%	+53
20	Sharks	W 7–5 vs Canadiens Mar 3, 2026	47%	+53
21	Oilers	W 4–2 @ Golden Knights Mar 8, 2026	48%	+52
22	Avalanche	W 5–1 @ Ducks Mar 3, 2026	48%	+52
23	Sabres	W 8–7 vs Lightning Mar 8, 2026	48%	+52
24	Blue Jackets	W 3–2 vs Predators Mar 3, 2026	48%	+52
25	Red Wings	W 4–2 @ Predators Mar 2, 2026	49%	+51
26	Mammoth	W 3–2 @ Capitals Mar 3, 2026	49%	+51
27	Sabres	W 3–2 vs Predators Mar 7, 2026	50%	+50
28	Ducks	W 6–5 SO vs Canadiens Mar 6, 2026	52%	+48
29	Rangers	W 6–2 vs Maple Leafs Mar 5, 2026	53%	+47
30	Mammoth	W 3–0 @ Flyers Mar 5, 2026	53%	+47
31	Devils	W 5–1 vs Panthers Mar 3, 2026	55%	+45
32	Lightning	W 5–2 @ Maple Leafs Mar 7, 2026	55%	+45
33	Wild	W 5–1 vs Lightning Mar 3, 2026	56%	+44
34	Red Wings	W 3–0 @ Devils Mar 8, 2026	58%	+42
35	Sabres	W 5–1 @ Penguins Mar 5, 2026	60%	+40
36	Jets	W 4–1 vs Lightning Mar 5, 2026	60%	+40
37	Kings	W 5–3 vs Islanders Mar 5, 2026	61%	+39
38	Devils	W 6–3 vs Rangers Mar 7, 2026	61%	+39
39	Predators	W 6–3 vs Bruins Mar 5, 2026	61%	+39
40	Hurricanes	W 6–3 @ Oilers Mar 6, 2026	62%	+38
41	Jets	W 3–2 OT vs Blackhawks Mar 3, 2026	62%	+38
42	Bruins	W 3–1 vs Capitals Mar 7, 2026	63%	+37
43	Jets	W 3–2 OT vs Canucks Mar 7, 2026	64%	+36
44	Oilers	W 5–4 OT vs Senators Mar 3, 2026	64%	+36
45	Penguins	W 5–4 OT vs Bruins Mar 8, 2026	65%	+35
46	Hurricanes	W 6–4 @ Canucks Mar 4, 2026	65%	+35
47	Devils	W 4–3 SO vs Maple Leafs Mar 4, 2026	68%	+32
48	Senators	W 7–4 @ Kraken Mar 7, 2026	69%	+31
49	Stars	W 4–3 OT vs Blackhawks Mar 8, 2026	69%	+31
50	Stars	W 6–1 @ Flames Mar 3, 2026	70%	+30
51	Avalanche	W 3–2 SO vs Wild Mar 8, 2026	74%	+26
52	Senators	W 4–1 @ Flames Mar 5, 2026	75%	+26
53	Avalanche	W 4–2 @ Kings Mar 2, 2026	75%	+25
54	Blues	W 4–0 @ Ducks Mar 8, 2026	79%	+21
55	Stars	W 6–1 @ Canucks Mar 2, 2026	81%	+19
56	Canucks	L 1–6 vs Stars Mar 2, 2026	19%	−19
57	Ducks	L 0–4 vs Blues Mar 8, 2026	21%	−21
58	Kings	L 2–4 vs Avalanche Mar 2, 2026	25%	−25
59	Flames	L 1–4 vs Senators Mar 5, 2026	26%	−26
60	Wild	L 2–3 SO @ Avalanche Mar 8, 2026	26%	−26
61	Flames	L 1–6 vs Stars Mar 3, 2026	30%	−30
62	Blackhawks	L 3–4 OT @ Stars Mar 8, 2026	31%	−31
63	Kraken	L 4–7 vs Senators Mar 7, 2026	31%	−31
64	Maple Leafs	L 3–4 SO @ Devils Mar 4, 2026	32%	−32
65	Canucks	L 4–6 vs Hurricanes Mar 4, 2026	35%	−35
66	Bruins	L 4–5 OT @ Penguins Mar 8, 2026	35%	−35
67	Senators	L 4–5 OT @ Oilers Mar 3, 2026	36%	−36
68	Canucks	L 2–3 OT @ Jets Mar 7, 2026	36%	−36
69	Capitals	L 1–3 @ Bruins Mar 7, 2026	37%	−37
70	Blackhawks	L 2–3 OT @ Jets Mar 3, 2026	38%	−38
71	Oilers	L 3–6 vs Hurricanes Mar 6, 2026	38%	−38
72	Bruins	L 3–6 @ Predators Mar 5, 2026	39%	−39
73	Rangers	L 3–6 @ Devils Mar 7, 2026	39%	−39
74	Islanders	L 3–5 @ Kings Mar 5, 2026	39%	−39
75	Lightning	L 1–4 @ Jets Mar 5, 2026	40%	−40
76	Penguins	L 1–5 vs Sabres Mar 5, 2026	40%	−40
77	Devils	L 0–3 vs Red Wings Mar 8, 2026	42%	−42
78	Lightning	L 1–5 @ Wild Mar 3, 2026	44%	−44
79	Maple Leafs	L 2–5 vs Lightning Mar 7, 2026	45%	−45
80	Panthers	L 1–5 @ Devils Mar 3, 2026	45%	−45
81	Flyers	L 0–3 vs Mammoth Mar 5, 2026	47%	−47
82	Maple Leafs	L 2–6 @ Rangers Mar 5, 2026	47%	−47
83	Canadiens	L 5–6 SO @ Ducks Mar 6, 2026	48%	−48
84	Predators	L 2–3 @ Sabres Mar 7, 2026	50%	−50
85	Capitals	L 2–3 vs Mammoth Mar 3, 2026	51%	−51
86	Predators	L 2–4 vs Red Wings Mar 2, 2026	51%	−51
87	Predators	L 2–3 @ Blue Jackets Mar 3, 2026	52%	−52
88	Ducks	L 1–5 vs Avalanche Mar 3, 2026	52%	−52
89	Lightning	L 7–8 @ Sabres Mar 8, 2026	52%	−52
90	Golden Knights	L 2–4 vs Oilers Mar 8, 2026	52%	−52
91	Canadiens	L 5–7 @ Sharks Mar 3, 2026	53%	−53
92	Maple Leafs	L 2–3 SO vs Flyers Mar 2, 2026	53%	−53
93	Golden Knights	L 2–3 @ Sabres Mar 3, 2026	54%	−54
94	Hurricanes	L 1–2 @ Kraken Mar 2, 2026	54%	−54
95	Kraken	L 2–3 vs Blues Mar 4, 2026	55%	−55
96	Rangers	L 4–5 OT vs Blue Jackets Mar 2, 2026	56%	−56
97	Islanders	L 1–5 @ Ducks Mar 4, 2026	56%	−56
98	Red Wings	L 3–4 OT vs Golden Knights Mar 4, 2026	57%	−57
99	Golden Knights	L 2–4 vs Wild Mar 6, 2026	57%	−57
100	Hurricanes	L 4–5 @ Flames Mar 7, 2026	57%	−57
101	Stars	L 4–5 SO vs Avalanche Mar 6, 2026	57%	−57
102	Penguins	L 1–2 @ Bruins Mar 3, 2026	58%	−58
103	Sharks	L 2–3 OT vs Blues Mar 6, 2026	58%	−58
104	Panthers	L 2–4 @ Blue Jackets Mar 5, 2026	58%	−58
105	Sharks	L 1–2 OT vs Islanders Mar 7, 2026	58%	−58
106	Blue Jackets	L 4–5 OT vs Mammoth Mar 7, 2026	61%	−61
107	Penguins	L 3–4 SO vs Flyers Mar 7, 2026	62%	−62
108	Blackhawks	L 3–6 vs Canucks Mar 6, 2026	69%	−69
109	Red Wings	L 1–3 vs Panthers Mar 6, 2026	70%	−70
110	Kings	L 3–4 vs Canadiens Mar 7, 2026	77%	−77