luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 3, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Mammoth at Capitals, Mar 3, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Mammoth beat the Capitals 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Mammoth win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 23 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

The biggest swing (P1, 8:48 left): Dylan Guenther scored on a snap shot from 36 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

Final

Utah Mammoth 3
Washington Capitals 2

March 3, 2026 · Capital One Arena

Luck index +51 Mammoth lucky · −51 Capitals

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mammoth win 5, Capitals win 5.

  1. 1 UTA 6 WSH 3
  2. 2 UTA 4 WSH 1
  3. 3 UTA 3 WSH 1
  4. 4 UTA 4 WSH 3
  5. 5 UTA 5 WSH 4
  6. 6 UTA 2 WSH 3
  7. 7 UTA 2 WSH 3
  8. 8 UTA 2 WSH 4
  9. 9 UTA 0 WSH 3
  10. 10 UTA 2 WSH 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Mammoth win 49% of them, Capitals 51%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mammoth by 3+16.2%
Mammoth by 29.9%
Mammoth by 122.7%
Capitals by 122.1%
Capitals by 29.8%
Capitals by 3+19.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 goals to the Capitals: the final margin was Mammoth by 1, without the luck Mammoth by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Mammoth3832.46+0.54
Capitals3922.81−0.81

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 7:31 Hooking on the Capitals (Alex Ovechkin): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P1 2:32 Holding the stick on the Mammoth (Alexander Kerfoot): 2 minutes on the power play +3% WSH
P2 3:16 Tripping on the Capitals (Jakob Chychrun): 2 minutes on the power play +5% UTA
P3 13:58 Hooking on the Mammoth (Jack McBain): 2 minutes on the power play +2% WSH

When it happened

Capitals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Capitals were ahead in it, below while the Mammoth were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 8:48 Dylan Guenther scored on a snap shot from 36 feetShooting · 8% chance +16% UTA –
2 P1 6:37 Mikhail Sergachev scored on a snap shot from 48 feetShooting · 5% chance +14% UTA –
3 P1 0:33 Pierre-Luc Dubois scored on a snap shot from 36 feetShooting · 6% chance +15% WSH –
4 P2 7:12 Pierre-Luc Dubois’s snap shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance +5% UTA –
5 P2 3:16 Tripping on the Capitals (Jakob Chychrun): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% UTA –
6 P2 1:36 JJ Peterka scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 20% chance +13% UTA –
7 P3 13:29 Ryan Leonard scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 7% chance +14% WSH –
8 P3 1:26 Lawson Crouse missed the net with a snap shot from 17 feetEmpty-net goals · 80% chance +5% WSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mammoth 80% · Capitals 20%

Final margin
Mammoth by 1
Luck in goals
0.4 for the Capitals
Luck-adjusted margin
Mammoth by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Mammoth 49% · Capitals 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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