luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 7, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Hurricanes at Flames, Mar 7, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Flames beat the Hurricanes 5–4, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flames win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 30 points of win probability to the Flames.

The biggest swing (P2, 19:41 left): Ryan Strome scored on a wrist shot from 11 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Flames.

Final

Carolina Hurricanes 4
Calgary Flames 5

March 7, 2026 · Scotiabank Saddledome

Luck index +57 Flames lucky · −57 Hurricanes

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Hurricanes win 6, Flames win 4.

  1. 1 CAR 4 CGY 0
  2. 2 CAR 5 CGY 2
  3. 3 CAR 4 CGY 1
  4. 4 CAR 2 CGY 0
  5. 5 CAR 3 CGY 2
  6. 6 CAR 3 CGY 2
  7. 7 CAR 2 CGY 3
  8. 8 CAR 5 CGY 6
  9. 9 CAR 0 CGY 2
  10. 10 CAR 0 CGY 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Hurricanes win 57% of them, Flames 43%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Hurricanes by 3+23.8%
Hurricanes by 211.9%
Hurricanes by 121.0%
Flames by 123.3%
Flames by 28.2%
Flames by 3+11.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 goals to the Flames: the final margin was Flames by 1, without the luck Hurricanes by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Hurricanes4742.85+1.15
Flames3352.03+2.97

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 15:16 High sticking on the Hurricanes (K'Andre Miller): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P1 2:54 Roughing on the Flames (Adam Klapka): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P2 15:30 Hooking on the Hurricanes (K'Andre Miller): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P2 13:00 Tripping on the Hurricanes (Mike Reilly): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P3 14:45 Interference on the Flames (Brayden Pachal): 2 minutes on the power play +2% CAR

When it happened

Flames’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flames were ahead in it, below while the Hurricanes were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:16 Seth Jarvis scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% CAR –
2 P2 19:41 Ryan Strome scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 5% chance +18% CGY –
3 P2 15:49 Joel Farabee scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 7% chance +18% CGY –
4 P2 12:54 Morgan Frost scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 10% chance +13% CGY –
5 P3 17:36 Blake Coleman scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 10% chance +5% CGY –
6 P3 14:17 Alexander Nikishin scored on a slap shot from 52 feetShooting · 4% chance +14% CAR –
7 P3 3:45 Eric Robinson’s wrist shot from 13 feet was savedShooting · 12% chance +5% CGY –
8 P3 2:18 Joel Farabee scored on a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 10% chance +6% CGY –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Hurricanes 66% · Flames 34%

Final margin
Flames by 1
Luck in goals
1.4 for the Flames
Luck-adjusted margin
Hurricanes by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Hurricanes 57% · Flames 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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