luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 7, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Penguins, Mar 7, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Flyers beat the Penguins 4–3, but the replays lean toward the Penguins: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Flyers.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Flyers won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Flyers.

Final (SO)

Philadelphia Flyers 4
Pittsburgh Penguins 3

March 7, 2026 · PPG Paints Arena

Luck index +62 Flyers very lucky · −62 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 4, Penguins win 6.

  1. 1 PHI 4 PIT 1
  2. 2 PHI 2 PIT 1
  3. 3 PHI 3 PIT 2
  4. 4 PHI 2 PIT 1
  5. 5 PHI 3 PIT 4
  6. 6 PHI 1 PIT 2
  7. 7 PHI 3 PIT 5
  8. 8 PHI 0 PIT 2
  9. 9 PHI 1 PIT 4
  10. 10 PHI 1 PIT 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Flyers win 38% of them, Penguins 62%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+8.6%
Flyers by 27.8%
Flyers by 122.0%
Penguins by 124.5%
Penguins by 212.5%
Penguins by 3+24.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Flyers by 1, without the luck Penguins by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers3131.67+1.33
Penguins3932.48+0.52

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:29 Holding on the Flyers (Rasmus Ristolainen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 10:48 High sticking on the Flyers (Luke Glendening): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 6:16 Tripping on the Penguins (Justin Brazeau): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P1 1:20 Roughing on the Flyers (Jamie Drysdale): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 6:58 Slashing on the Penguins (Kris Letang): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI
P3 16:06 Slashing on the Flyers (Christian Dvorak): 2 minutes on the power play +6% PIT
P3 6:41 High sticking on the Flyers (Carl Grundstrom): 2 minutes on the power play +8% PIT
OT 2:09 Interference on the Flyers (Dan Vladar): 2 minutes on the power play +12% PIT

When it happened

Penguins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Penguins were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:00 Tommy Novak scored on a wrist shot from 34 feetShooting · 9% chance +14% PIT –
2 P1 16:06 Owen Tippett scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 11% chance +14% PHI –
3 P2 16:22 Rickard Rakell scored on a wrist shot from 40 feetShooting · 3% chance +19% PIT –
4 P2 15:14 Alex Bump scored on a wrist shot from 25 feetShooting · 8% chance +18% PHI –
5 P2 14:15 Erik Karlsson scored on a slap shot from 51 feetShooting · 2% chance +19% PIT –
6 P2 9:57 Denver Barkey scored on a backhand shot from 5 feetShooting · 11% chance +19% PHI –
7 SO The game turned hereThe Flyers won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% PHI –
8 OT 2:09 Interference on the Flyers (Dan Vladar): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% PIT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 33% · Penguins 67%

Final margin
Flyers by 1
Luck in goals
1.6 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Penguins by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 38% · Penguins 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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