2025-26 regular season · March 3, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Predators at Blue Jackets, Mar 3, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Blue Jackets beat the Predators 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blue Jackets win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 22 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.
The biggest swing (P3, 13:53 left): Charlie Coyle scored on a deflected shot from 8 feet, worth 30 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.
Final
 Nashville Predators | 2 |
|---|---|
 Columbus Blue Jackets | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Blue Jackets lucky · −52 Predators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Predators win 5, Blue Jackets win 5.
- 1 NSH 5 CBJ 0
- 2 NSH 5 CBJ 2
- 3 NSH 4 CBJ 2
- 4 NSH 6 CBJ 5
- 5 NSH 5 CBJ 4
- 6 NSH 2 CBJ 3
- 7 NSH 1 CBJ 2
- 8 NSH 3 CBJ 5
- 9 NSH 4 CBJ 7
- 10 NSH 0 CBJ 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.7 replays ended
Predators win 52% of them, Blue Jackets 48%. The line is what actually happened: Blue Jackets by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Predators by 3+ | 22.0% |
| Predators by 2 | 10.1% |
| Predators by 1 | 19.5% |
| Blue Jackets by 1 | 19.6% |
| Blue Jackets by 2 | 9.5% |
| Blue Jackets by 3+ | 19.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Predators | 37 | 2 | 3.35 | −1.35 |
 Blue Jackets | 52 | 3 | 3.42 | −0.42 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 3:34 | Holding on the Predators (Steven Stamkos): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CBJ |
| P1 2:17 | Hooking on the Blue Jackets (Mason Marchment): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P2 14:53 | High sticking on the Predators (Luke Evangelista): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CBJ |
| P3 18:27 | High sticking on the Blue Jackets (Kirill Marchenko): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NSH |
| P3 13:53 | Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Predators (NSH): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CBJ |
| P3 9:57 | Slashing on the Predators (Michael Bunting): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CBJ |
When it happened
Blue Jackets’ chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 5:37 | Adam Fantilli scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 10% chance | +16% CBJ | – |
| 2 | P1 0:28 | Filip Forsberg scored on a wrist shot from 3 feetShooting · 52% chance | +9% NSH | – |
| 3 | P2 5:21 | Ryan O'Reilly scored on a deflected shot from 6 feetShooting · 12% chance | +21% NSH | – |
| 4 | P3 18:27 | High sticking on the Blue Jackets (Kirill Marchenko): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% NSH | – |
| 5 | P3 18:08 | Sean Monahan scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 12% chance | +24% CBJ | – |
| 6 | P3 17:05 | Ryan O'Reilly missed the net with a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 28% chance | +8% CBJ | – |
| 7 | P3 13:53 | Charlie Coyle scored on a deflected shot from 8 feetShooting · 11% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Predators (NSH): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +30% CBJ | – |
| 8 | P3 9:57 | Slashing on the Predators (Michael Bunting): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% CBJ | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Predators 50% · Blue Jackets 50%
- Final margin
- Blue Jackets by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for the Blue Jackets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Blue Jackets by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Predators 52% · Blue Jackets 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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