luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 2, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Maple Leafs, Mar 2, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Flyers beat the Maple Leafs 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flyers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Flyers.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Flyers won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Flyers.

Final (SO)

Philadelphia Flyers 3
Toronto Maple Leafs 2

March 2, 2026 · Scotiabank Arena

Luck index +53 Flyers lucky · −53 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 5, Maple Leafs win 5.

  1. 1 PHI 4 TOR 1
  2. 2 PHI 5 TOR 2
  3. 3 PHI 5 TOR 4
  4. 4 PHI 4 TOR 3
  5. 5 PHI 5 TOR 4
  6. 6 PHI 2 TOR 3
  7. 7 PHI 1 TOR 2
  8. 8 PHI 1 TOR 3
  9. 9 PHI 4 TOR 6
  10. 10 PHI 1 TOR 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Flyers win 47% of them, Maple Leafs 53%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+13.5%
Flyers by 29.8%
Flyers by 124.1%
Maple Leafs by 123.7%
Maple Leafs by 211.5%
Maple Leafs by 3+17.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Flyers by 1, without the luck Maple Leafs by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers3322.05−0.05
Maple Leafs3922.26−0.26

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:24 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Easton Cowan): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P1 7:59 Interference on the Maple Leafs (Nicolas Roy): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P1 7:00 Too many men on the ice on the Flyers (PHI): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P1 3:13 Holding on the Maple Leafs (Brandon Carlo): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P3 19:20 Holding on the Flyers (Rasmus Ristolainen): 2 minutes on the power play +6% TOR
P3 4:23 Tripping on the Flyers (Denver Barkey): 2 minutes on the power play +6% TOR

When it happened

Maple Leafs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Maple Leafs were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 4:38 Dakota Joshua scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 6% chance +17% TOR –
2 P1 1:22 Christian Dvorak scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 19% chance +15% PHI –
3 P3 19:20 Holding on the Flyers (Rasmus Ristolainen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% TOR –
4 P3 5:25 Matvei Michkov missed the net with a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 15% chance +6% TOR –
5 P3 5:18 Noah Cates scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 7% chance +36% PHI –
6 P3 2:36 Auston Matthews’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 32% chance +13% PHI –
7 P3 2:30 William Nylander scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 15% chance +36% TOR –
8 SO The game turned hereThe Flyers won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% PHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 46% · Maple Leafs 54%

Final margin
Flyers by 1
Luck in goals
1.1 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Maple Leafs by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 47% · Maple Leafs 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 22 2025-26 games · Flyers · Maple Leafs

More from week 22, 2025-26

Every game of week 22, 2025-26