luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 6, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Panthers at Red Wings, Mar 6, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Red Wings 3–1, but the replays lean toward the Red Wings: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 53 points of win probability to the Panthers.

The biggest swing (P3, 19:25 left): Matthew Tkachuk scored on a tip from 5 feet, worth 23 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Florida Panthers 3
Detroit Red Wings 1

March 6, 2026 · Little Caesars Arena

Luck index +70 Panthers very lucky · −70 Red Wings

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Red Wings win 7.

  1. 1 FLA 4 DET 2
  2. 2 FLA 4 DET 3
  3. 3 FLA 2 DET 1
  4. 4 FLA 3 DET 4
  5. 5 FLA 2 DET 4
  6. 6 FLA 1 DET 3
  7. 7 FLA 1 DET 4
  8. 8 FLA 3 DET 6
  9. 9 FLA 1 DET 5
  10. 10 FLA 0 DET 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 30% of them, Red Wings 70%. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 3+6.6%
Panthers by 25.6%
Panthers by 118.1%
Red Wings by 116.8%
Red Wings by 211.7%
Red Wings by 3+41.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 goals to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 2, without the luck Red Wings by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Panthers3422.06−0.06
Red Wings5113.97−2.97

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 0:50 Slashing on the Panthers (Carter Verhaeghe): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P2 17:58 Tripping on the Red Wings (Patrick Kane): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P2 10:02 Interference on the Panthers (Anton Lundell): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P2 9:32 Tripping on the Panthers (Gustav Forsling): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P2 0:59 Hooking on the Red Wings (Jacob Bernard-Docker): 2 minutes on the power play +6% FLA
P3 19:09 Tripping on the Red Wings (Simon Edvinsson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% FLA
P3 5:21 Too many men on the ice on the Panthers (FLA): 2 minutes on the power play +6% DET

When it happened

Red Wings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Red Wings were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 8:54 Matthew Tkachuk scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 16% chance +15% FLA –
2 P2 9:04 Alex DeBrincat scored on a bat shot from 5 feetShooting · 17% chance +18% DET –
3 P2 0:59 Hooking on the Red Wings (Jacob Bernard-Docker): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% FLA –
4 P3 19:25 Matthew Tkachuk scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 12% chance +23% FLA –
5 P3 19:09 Tripping on the Red Wings (Simon Edvinsson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% FLA –
6 P3 15:00 Dylan Larkin’s backhand shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +6% FLA –
7 P3 6:25 Patrick Kane missed the net with a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 13% chance +5% FLA –
8 P3 5:21 Too many men on the ice on the Panthers (FLA): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% DET –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 43% · Red Wings 57%

Final margin
Panthers by 2
Luck in goals
2.4 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Red Wings by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 30% · Red Wings 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 22 2025-26 games · Panthers · Red Wings

More from week 22, 2025-26

Every game of week 22, 2025-26