luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 5, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Sabres at Penguins, Mar 5, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Sabres beat the Penguins 5–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Sabres win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 19 points of win probability to the Sabres.

The biggest swing (P2, 15:50 left): Josh Norris scored on a wrist shot from 11 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Sabres.

Final

Buffalo Sabres 5
Pittsburgh Penguins 1

March 5, 2026 · PPG Paints Arena

Luck index +40 Sabres lucky · −40 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sabres win 6, Penguins win 4.

  1. 1 BUF 8 PIT 3
  2. 2 BUF 4 PIT 1
  3. 3 BUF 3 PIT 0
  4. 4 BUF 4 PIT 2
  5. 5 BUF 4 PIT 3
  6. 6 BUF 2 PIT 1
  7. 7 BUF 2 PIT 3
  8. 8 BUF 3 PIT 4
  9. 9 BUF 2 PIT 4
  10. 10 BUF 1 PIT 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Sabres win 60% of them, Penguins 40%. The line is what actually happened: Sabres by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Sabres by 3+28.2%
Sabres by 210.4%
Sabres by 121.0%
Penguins by 122.3%
Penguins by 27.4%
Penguins by 3+10.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 goals to the Sabres: the final margin was Sabres by 4, without the luck Sabres by 1.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Sabres4743.15+0.85
Penguins4112.85−1.85

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:38 Hooking on the Sabres (Peyton Krebs): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 11:44 Holding on the Penguins (Erik Karlsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P1 9:36 Too many men on the ice on the Sabres (BUF): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 5:56 Holding on the Penguins (Noel Acciari): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P2 19:22 Cross checking on the Penguins (Evgeni Malkin): 5 minutes on the power play +11% BUF
P2 15:50 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Penguins (PIT): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P2 14:35 Slashing on the Sabres (Ryan McLeod): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 5:16 Boarding on the Sabres (Beck Malenstyn): 2 minutes on the power play +1% PIT
P3 12:56 Holding the stick on the Penguins (Ben Kindel): 2 minutes on the power play +1% BUF
P3 8:06 Slashing on the Sabres (Rasmus Dahlin): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PIT

When it happened

Penguins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Penguins were ahead in it, below while the Sabres were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 9:36 Too many men on the ice on the Sabres (BUF): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% PIT –
2 P1 8:00 Ryan McLeod scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 13% chance +15% BUF –
3 P1 5:12 Bryan Rust scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 28% chance +13% PIT –
4 P2 19:22 Cross checking on the Penguins (Evgeni Malkin): 5 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +11% BUF –
5 P2 15:50 Josh Norris scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 21% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Penguins (PIT): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +20% BUF –
6 P2 14:35 Slashing on the Sabres (Ryan McLeod): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% PIT –
7 P2 13:42 Alex Tuch scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% BUF –
8 P2 9:30 Owen Power scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 8% chance +8% BUF –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sabres 81% · Penguins 19%

Final margin
Sabres by 4
Luck in goals
2.3 for the Sabres
Luck-adjusted margin
Sabres by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Sabres 60% · Penguins 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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