2025-26 NHL season · Feb 25, 2026 – Mar 1, 2026

NHL week 21: who deserved to win

4 of 43 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Red Wings beat the Senators 2–1 (OT) in a game they win 31% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 43 games.

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Red Wings lucky 2

Senators unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Red Wings win 31% of replays

Panthers unlucky 4

Islanders lucky 5 Replays favor loser · Islanders win 34% of replays

Blue Jackets unlucky 2

Bruins lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Bruins win 37% of replays

Blackhawks unlucky 2

Predators lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Predators win 38% of replays

Oilers 5

Ducks 6 Coin flip · Ducks win 43% of replays

Capitals 2

Canadiens 6 Coin flip · Canadiens win 43% of replays

Blues 3

Wild 1 Coin flip · Blues win 44% of replays

Sabres 3

Panthers 2 Coin flip · Sabres win 44% of replays

Lightning 4

Hurricanes 5 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 45% of replays

Islanders 4

Blue Jackets 3 Coin flip · Islanders win 45% of replays

Golden Knights 2

Capitals 3 Coin flip · Capitals win 46% of replays

Islanders 4

Canadiens 3 Coin flip · Islanders win 46% of replays

Flames 4

Sharks 1 Coin flip · Flames win 47% of replays

Avalanche 4

Mammoth 2 Coin flip · Avalanche win 47% of replays

Blackhawks 4

Mammoth 0 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 47% of replays

Sabres 2

Devils 1 Coin flip · Sabres win 48% of replays

Bruins 1

Flyers 3 Coin flip · Flyers win 48% of replays

Jets 4

Ducks 5 Coin flip · Ducks win 49% of replays

Flames 2

Ducks 3 Coin flip · Ducks win 49% of replays

Penguins 2

Rangers 3 Coin flip · Rangers win 52% of replays

Predators 2

Stars 3 Coin flip · Stars win 54% of replays

Kraken 1

Blues 5 Coin flip · Blues win 54% of replays

Flames 0

Kings 2 Coin flip · Kings win 54% of replays

Golden Knights 6

Kings 4 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 54% of replays

Golden Knights 0

Penguins 5 Coin flip · Penguins win 55% of replays

Jets 1

Sharks 2 Coin flip · Sharks win 56% of replays

Canucks 1

Kraken 5 Coin flip · Kraken win 57% of replays

Wild 5

Avalanche 2 Coin flip · Wild win 57% of replays

Flyers 1

Capitals 3 Coin flip · Capitals win 58% of replays

Kraken 1

Stars 4 Coin flip · Stars win 59% of replays

Devils 1

Penguins 4 Coin flip · Penguins win 59% of replays

Oilers 4

Sharks 5 Replays agree · Sharks win 60% of replays

Senators 5

Maple Leafs 2 Replays agree · Senators win 61% of replays

Maple Leafs 1

Panthers 5 Replays agree · Panthers win 62% of replays

Sabres 6

Lightning 2 Replays agree · Sabres win 62% of replays

Devils 3

Blues 1 Replays agree · Devils win 63% of replays

Blackhawks 1

Avalanche 3 Replays agree · Avalanche win 65% of replays

Flyers 3

Rangers 2 Replays agree · Flyers win 65% of replays

Red Wings 2

Hurricanes 5 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 66% of replays

Wild 2

Mammoth 5 Replays agree · Mammoth win 66% of replays

Jets 3

Canucks 2 Replays agree · Jets win 67% of replays

Oilers 8

Kings 1 Replays agree · Oilers win 68% of replays

Maple Leafs 2

Lightning 4 Replays agree · Lightning win 72% of replays

Week 21 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.

#	Team	Game	Wins the replay	Luck index
1	Red Wings	W 2–1 OT @ Senators Feb 26, 2026	31%	+69
2	Islanders	W 5–4 vs Panthers Mar 1, 2026	34%	+66
3	Bruins	W 4–2 vs Blue Jackets Feb 26, 2026	37%	+63
4	Predators	W 4–2 vs Blackhawks Feb 26, 2026	38%	+62
5	Ducks	W 6–5 vs Oilers Feb 25, 2026	43%	+57
6	Canadiens	W 6–2 vs Capitals Feb 28, 2026	43%	+57
7	Blues	W 3–1 @ Wild Mar 1, 2026	44%	+56
8	Sabres	W 3–2 @ Panthers Feb 27, 2026	44%	+56
9	Hurricanes	W 5–4 vs Lightning Feb 26, 2026	45%	+55
10	Islanders	W 4–3 OT @ Blue Jackets Feb 28, 2026	45%	+55
11	Capitals	W 3–2 vs Golden Knights Feb 27, 2026	46%	+54
12	Islanders	W 4–3 OT @ Canadiens Feb 26, 2026	46%	+54
13	Flames	W 4–1 @ Sharks Feb 26, 2026	47%	+54
14	Avalanche	W 4–2 @ Mammoth Feb 25, 2026	47%	+53
15	Blackhawks	W 4–0 @ Mammoth Mar 1, 2026	47%	+53
16	Sabres	W 2–1 @ Devils Feb 25, 2026	48%	+52
17	Flyers	W 3–1 vs Bruins Feb 28, 2026	48%	+52
18	Ducks	W 5–4 OT vs Jets Feb 27, 2026	49%	+51
19	Ducks	W 3–2 SO vs Flames Mar 1, 2026	49%	+51
20	Rangers	W 3–2 SO vs Penguins Feb 28, 2026	52%	+48
21	Stars	W 3–2 OT vs Predators Feb 28, 2026	54%	+46
22	Blues	W 5–1 vs Kraken Feb 26, 2026	54%	+46
23	Kings	W 2–0 vs Flames Feb 28, 2026	54%	+46
24	Golden Knights	W 6–4 @ Kings Feb 25, 2026	54%	+46
25	Penguins	W 5–0 vs Golden Knights Mar 1, 2026	55%	+45
26	Sharks	W 2–1 OT vs Jets Mar 1, 2026	56%	+44
27	Kraken	W 5–1 vs Canucks Feb 28, 2026	57%	+43
28	Wild	W 5–2 @ Avalanche Feb 26, 2026	57%	+43
29	Capitals	W 3–1 vs Flyers Feb 25, 2026	58%	+42
30	Stars	W 4–1 vs Kraken Feb 25, 2026	59%	+41
31	Penguins	W 4–1 vs Devils Feb 26, 2026	59%	+41
32	Sharks	W 5–4 vs Oilers Feb 28, 2026	60%	+40
33	Senators	W 5–2 @ Maple Leafs Feb 28, 2026	61%	+39
34	Panthers	W 5–1 vs Maple Leafs Feb 26, 2026	62%	+38
35	Sabres	W 6–2 @ Lightning Feb 28, 2026	62%	+38
36	Devils	W 3–1 @ Blues Feb 28, 2026	63%	+37
37	Avalanche	W 3–1 vs Blackhawks Feb 28, 2026	65%	+35
38	Flyers	W 3–2 OT @ Rangers Feb 26, 2026	65%	+35
39	Hurricanes	W 5–2 vs Red Wings Feb 28, 2026	66%	+34
40	Mammoth	W 5–2 vs Wild Feb 27, 2026	66%	+34
41	Jets	W 3–2 OT @ Canucks Feb 25, 2026	67%	+33
42	Oilers	W 8–1 @ Kings Feb 26, 2026	68%	+32
43	Lightning	W 4–2 vs Maple Leafs Feb 25, 2026	72%	+28
44	Maple Leafs	L 2–4 @ Lightning Feb 25, 2026	28%	−28
45	Kings	L 1–8 vs Oilers Feb 26, 2026	32%	−32
46	Canucks	L 2–3 OT vs Jets Feb 25, 2026	33%	−33
47	Wild	L 2–5 @ Mammoth Feb 27, 2026	34%	−34
48	Red Wings	L 2–5 @ Hurricanes Feb 28, 2026	34%	−34
49	Rangers	L 2–3 OT vs Flyers Feb 26, 2026	35%	−35
50	Blackhawks	L 1–3 @ Avalanche Feb 28, 2026	35%	−35
51	Blues	L 1–3 vs Devils Feb 28, 2026	37%	−37
52	Lightning	L 2–6 vs Sabres Feb 28, 2026	38%	−38
53	Maple Leafs	L 1–5 @ Panthers Feb 26, 2026	38%	−38
54	Maple Leafs	L 2–5 vs Senators Feb 28, 2026	39%	−39
55	Oilers	L 4–5 @ Sharks Feb 28, 2026	40%	−40
56	Devils	L 1–4 @ Penguins Feb 26, 2026	41%	−41
57	Kraken	L 1–4 @ Stars Feb 25, 2026	41%	−41
58	Flyers	L 1–3 @ Capitals Feb 25, 2026	42%	−42
59	Avalanche	L 2–5 vs Wild Feb 26, 2026	43%	−43
60	Canucks	L 1–5 @ Kraken Feb 28, 2026	43%	−43
61	Jets	L 1–2 OT @ Sharks Mar 1, 2026	44%	−44
62	Golden Knights	L 0–5 @ Penguins Mar 1, 2026	45%	−45
63	Kings	L 4–6 vs Golden Knights Feb 25, 2026	46%	−46
64	Kraken	L 1–5 @ Blues Feb 26, 2026	46%	−46
65	Flames	L 0–2 @ Kings Feb 28, 2026	46%	−46
66	Predators	L 2–3 OT @ Stars Feb 28, 2026	46%	−46
67	Penguins	L 2–3 SO @ Rangers Feb 28, 2026	48%	−48
68	Jets	L 4–5 OT @ Ducks Feb 27, 2026	51%	−51
69	Flames	L 2–3 SO @ Ducks Mar 1, 2026	51%	−51
70	Bruins	L 1–3 @ Flyers Feb 28, 2026	52%	−52
71	Devils	L 1–2 vs Sabres Feb 25, 2026	52%	−52
72	Mammoth	L 0–4 vs Blackhawks Mar 1, 2026	53%	−53
73	Mammoth	L 2–4 vs Avalanche Feb 25, 2026	53%	−53
74	Sharks	L 1–4 vs Flames Feb 26, 2026	54%	−54
75	Canadiens	L 3–4 OT vs Islanders Feb 26, 2026	54%	−54
76	Golden Knights	L 2–3 @ Capitals Feb 27, 2026	54%	−54
77	Blue Jackets	L 3–4 OT vs Islanders Feb 28, 2026	55%	−55
78	Lightning	L 4–5 @ Hurricanes Feb 26, 2026	55%	−55
79	Panthers	L 2–3 vs Sabres Feb 27, 2026	56%	−56
80	Wild	L 1–3 vs Blues Mar 1, 2026	56%	−56
81	Capitals	L 2–6 @ Canadiens Feb 28, 2026	57%	−57
82	Oilers	L 5–6 @ Ducks Feb 25, 2026	57%	−57
83	Blackhawks	L 2–4 @ Predators Feb 26, 2026	62%	−62
84	Blue Jackets	L 2–4 @ Bruins Feb 26, 2026	63%	−63
85	Panthers	L 4–5 @ Islanders Mar 1, 2026	66%	−66
86	Senators	L 1–2 OT vs Red Wings Feb 26, 2026	69%	−69