Canadiens lucky 5 
Jets unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 25% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Feb 2, 2026 – Feb 5, 2026
NHL week 18: who deserved to win
5 of 34 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Canadiens beat the Jets 5–1 in a game they win 25% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 34 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Canadiens lucky 5 Jets unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 25% of replays 
Penguins unlucky 4 
Islanders lucky 5 Replays favor loser · Islanders win 26% of replays 
Sabres lucky 5 
Panthers unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Sabres win 31% of replays 
Senators unlucky 3 
Hurricanes lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Hurricanes win 33% of replays 
Kings unlucky 1 
Golden Knights lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Golden Knights win 36% of replays Islanders 1 
Capitals 4 Coin flip · Capitals win 41% of replays Islanders 3 
Devils 1 Coin flip · Islanders win 44% of replays 
Sharks 3 
Blackhawks 6 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 44% of replays 
Predators 2 Capitals 4 Coin flip · Capitals win 45% of replays 
Blues 5 Predators 6 Coin flip · Predators win 45% of replays 
Maple Leafs 4 
Flames 2 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 47% of replays Maple Leafs 5 
Oilers 2 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 47% of replays 
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 0 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 47% of replays Panthers 1 
Lightning 6 Coin flip · Lightning win 49% of replays Oilers 3 Flames 4 Coin flip · Flames win 51% of replays Blackhawks 0 Blue Jackets 4 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 52% of replays 
Red Wings 1 
Mammoth 4 Coin flip · Mammoth win 53% of replays 
Bruins 4 Panthers 5 Coin flip · Panthers win 53% of replays 
Kraken 4 Kings 2 Coin flip · Kraken win 54% of replays 
Wild 6 Predators 5 Coin flip · Wild win 55% of replays Red Wings 2 
Avalanche 0 Coin flip · Red Wings win 55% of replays 
Canucks 2 Mammoth 6 Coin flip · Mammoth win 57% of replays Capitals 2 
Flyers 4 Coin flip · Flyers win 57% of replays Sabres 3 Lightning 4 Coin flip · Lightning win 58% of replays Penguins 5 Sabres 2 Coin flip · Penguins win 59% of replays Senators 2 Flyers 1 Replays agree · Senators win 61% of replays Canadiens 3 Wild 4 Replays agree · Wild win 64% of replays Hurricanes 2 
Rangers 0 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 67% of replays Senators 3 Penguins 2 Replays agree · Senators win 67% of replays Jets 3 
Stars 4 Replays agree · Stars win 70% of replays Kraken 2 
Ducks 4 Replays agree · Ducks win 70% of replays Canucks 2 Golden Knights 5 Replays agree · Golden Knights win 72% of replays Sharks 2 Avalanche 4 Replays agree · Avalanche win 73% of replays Blues 4 Stars 5 Replays agree · Stars win 75% of replays Week 18 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canadiens | W 5–1 @ Jets Feb 4, 2026 | 25% | +75 |
| 2 | Islanders | W 5–4 OT vs Penguins Feb 3, 2026 | 26% | +74 |
| 3 | Sabres | W 5–3 @ Panthers Feb 2, 2026 | 31% | +69 |
| 4 | Hurricanes | W 4–3 vs Senators Feb 3, 2026 | 33% | +67 |
| 5 | Golden Knights | W 4–1 vs Kings Feb 5, 2026 | 36% | +64 |
| 6 | Capitals | W 4–1 vs Islanders Feb 2, 2026 | 41% | +59 |
| 7 | Islanders | W 3–1 @ Devils Feb 5, 2026 | 44% | +56 |
| 8 | Blackhawks | W 6–3 vs Sharks Feb 2, 2026 | 44% | +56 |
| 9 | Capitals | W 4–2 vs Predators Feb 5, 2026 | 45% | +55 |
| 10 | Predators | W 6–5 vs Blues Feb 2, 2026 | 45% | +55 |
| 11 | Maple Leafs | W 4–2 @ Flames Feb 2, 2026 | 47% | +53 |
| 12 | Maple Leafs | W 5–2 @ Oilers Feb 3, 2026 | 47% | +53 |
| 13 | Blue Jackets | W 3–0 @ Devils Feb 3, 2026 | 47% | +53 |
| 14 | Lightning | W 6–1 vs Panthers Feb 5, 2026 | 49% | +51 |
| 15 | Flames | W 4–3 vs Oilers Feb 4, 2026 | 51% | +49 |
| 16 | Blue Jackets | W 4–0 vs Blackhawks Feb 4, 2026 | 52% | +48 |
| 17 | Mammoth | W 4–1 vs Red Wings Feb 4, 2026 | 53% | +47 |
| 18 | Panthers | W 5–4 SO vs Bruins Feb 4, 2026 | 53% | +47 |
| 19 | Kraken | W 4–2 @ Kings Feb 4, 2026 | 54% | +46 |
| 20 | Wild | W 6–5 OT @ Predators Feb 4, 2026 | 55% | +45 |
| 21 | Red Wings | W 2–0 @ Avalanche Feb 2, 2026 | 55% | +45 |
| 22 | Mammoth | W 6–2 vs Canucks Feb 2, 2026 | 57% | +43 |
| 23 | Flyers | W 4–2 vs Capitals Feb 3, 2026 | 57% | +43 |
| 24 | Lightning | W 4–3 OT vs Sabres Feb 3, 2026 | 58% | +42 |
| 25 | Penguins | W 5–2 @ Sabres Feb 5, 2026 | 59% | +41 |
| 26 | Senators | W 2–1 OT @ Flyers Feb 5, 2026 | 61% | +39 |
| 27 | Wild | W 4–3 OT vs Canadiens Feb 2, 2026 | 64% | +36 |
| 28 | Hurricanes | W 2–0 @ Rangers Feb 5, 2026 | 67% | +33 |
| 29 | Senators | W 3–2 @ Penguins Feb 2, 2026 | 67% | +33 |
| 30 | Stars | W 4–3 OT vs Jets Feb 2, 2026 | 70% | +30 |
| 31 | Ducks | W 4–2 vs Kraken Feb 3, 2026 | 70% | +30 |
| 32 | Golden Knights | W 5–2 vs Canucks Feb 4, 2026 | 72% | +28 |
| 33 | Avalanche | W 4–2 vs Sharks Feb 4, 2026 | 73% | +27 |
| 34 | Stars | W 5–4 vs Blues Feb 4, 2026 | 75% | +25 |
| 35 | Blues | L 4–5 @ Stars Feb 4, 2026 | 25% | −25 |
| 36 | Sharks | L 2–4 @ Avalanche Feb 4, 2026 | 27% | −27 |
| 37 | Canucks | L 2–5 @ Golden Knights Feb 4, 2026 | 28% | −28 |
| 38 | Kraken | L 2–4 @ Ducks Feb 3, 2026 | 30% | −30 |
| 39 | Jets | L 3–4 OT @ Stars Feb 2, 2026 | 30% | −30 |
| 40 | Penguins | L 2–3 vs Senators Feb 2, 2026 | 33% | −33 |
| 41 | Rangers | L 0–2 vs Hurricanes Feb 5, 2026 | 33% | −33 |
| 42 | Canadiens | L 3–4 OT @ Wild Feb 2, 2026 | 36% | −36 |
| 43 | Flyers | L 1–2 OT vs Senators Feb 5, 2026 | 39% | −39 |
| 44 | Sabres | L 2–5 vs Penguins Feb 5, 2026 | 41% | −41 |
| 45 | Sabres | L 3–4 OT @ Lightning Feb 3, 2026 | 42% | −42 |
| 46 | Capitals | L 2–4 @ Flyers Feb 3, 2026 | 43% | −43 |
| 47 | Canucks | L 2–6 @ Mammoth Feb 2, 2026 | 43% | −43 |
| 48 | Avalanche | L 0–2 vs Red Wings Feb 2, 2026 | 45% | −45 |
| 49 | Predators | L 5–6 OT vs Wild Feb 4, 2026 | 45% | −45 |
| 50 | Kings | L 2–4 vs Kraken Feb 4, 2026 | 46% | −46 |
| 51 | Bruins | L 4–5 SO @ Panthers Feb 4, 2026 | 47% | −47 |
| 52 | Red Wings | L 1–4 @ Mammoth Feb 4, 2026 | 47% | −47 |
| 53 | Blackhawks | L 0–4 @ Blue Jackets Feb 4, 2026 | 48% | −48 |
| 54 | Oilers | L 3–4 @ Flames Feb 4, 2026 | 49% | −49 |
| 55 | Panthers | L 1–6 @ Lightning Feb 5, 2026 | 51% | −51 |
| 56 | Devils | L 0–3 vs Blue Jackets Feb 3, 2026 | 53% | −53 |
| 57 | Oilers | L 2–5 vs Maple Leafs Feb 3, 2026 | 53% | −53 |
| 58 | Flames | L 2–4 vs Maple Leafs Feb 2, 2026 | 53% | −53 |
| 59 | Blues | L 5–6 @ Predators Feb 2, 2026 | 55% | −55 |
| 60 | Predators | L 2–4 @ Capitals Feb 5, 2026 | 55% | −55 |
| 61 | Sharks | L 3–6 @ Blackhawks Feb 2, 2026 | 56% | −56 |
| 62 | Devils | L 1–3 vs Islanders Feb 5, 2026 | 56% | −56 |
| 63 | Islanders | L 1–4 @ Capitals Feb 2, 2026 | 59% | −59 |
| 64 | Kings | L 1–4 @ Golden Knights Feb 5, 2026 | 64% | −64 |
| 65 | Senators | L 3–4 @ Hurricanes Feb 3, 2026 | 67% | −67 |
| 66 | Panthers | L 3–5 vs Sabres Feb 2, 2026 | 69% | −69 |
| 67 | Penguins | L 4–5 OT @ Islanders Feb 3, 2026 | 74% | −74 |
| 68 | Jets | L 1–5 vs Canadiens Feb 4, 2026 | 75% | −75 |