2025-26 regular season · February 2, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Sharks at Blackhawks, Feb 2, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Blackhawks beat the Sharks 6–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blackhawks win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 24 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.
The biggest swing (P1, 13:00 left): Connor Bedard scored on a snap shot from 20 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.
Final
 San Jose Sharks | 3 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Blackhawks | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Blackhawks lucky · −56 Sharks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sharks win 6, Blackhawks win 4.
- 1 SJS 5 CHI 1
- 2 SJS 5 CHI 2
- 3 SJS 4 CHI 1
- 4 SJS 2 CHI 0
- 5 SJS 5 CHI 4
- 6 SJS 2 CHI 1
- 7 SJS 3 CHI 4
- 8 SJS 3 CHI 4
- 9 SJS 2 CHI 4
- 10 SJS 0 CHI 3
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Sharks win 56% of them, Blackhawks 44%. The line is what actually happened: Blackhawks by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sharks by 3+ | 24.5% |
| Sharks by 2 | 10.4% |
| Sharks by 1 | 21.0% |
| Blackhawks by 1 | 22.9% |
| Blackhawks by 2 | 8.6% |
| Blackhawks by 3+ | 12.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sharks | 43 | 3 | 2.86 | +0.14 |
 Blackhawks | 29 | 6 | 2.02 | +3.98 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 18:18 | Interference on the Blackhawks (Sam Rinzel): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SJS |
| P1 14:26 | Too many men on the ice on the Sharks (SJS): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CHI |
| P1 8:25 | Hooking on the Sharks (Michael Misa): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CHI |
| P1 4:04 | Tripping on the Sharks (Alexander Wennberg): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CHI |
| P2 16:09 | Tripping on the Sharks (Pavol Regenda): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% CHI |
| P2 1:41 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Blackhawks (Louis Crevier): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% SJS |
| P3 17:18 | Hooking on the Blackhawks (Connor Bedard): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% SJS |
| P3 8:40 | Tripping on the Blackhawks (Matt Grzelcyk): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% SJS |
When it happened
Blackhawks’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:18 | Interference on the Blackhawks (Sam Rinzel): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% SJS | – |
| 2 | P1 14:26 | Too many men on the ice on the Sharks (SJS): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% CHI | – |
| 3 | P1 13:00 | Connor Bedard scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 10% chance | +15% CHI | – |
| 4 | P1 8:25 | Hooking on the Sharks (Michael Misa): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% CHI | – |
| 5 | P1 4:04 | Tripping on the Sharks (Alexander Wennberg): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% CHI | – |
| 6 | P2 17:46 | Connor Murphy scored on a wrist shot from 47 feetShooting · 1% chance | +14% CHI | – |
| 7 | P2 10:25 | Ryan Donato scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 8% chance | +7% CHI | – |
| 8 | P3 17:47 | Shakir Mukhamadullin scored on a backhand shot from 13 feetShooting · 9% chance | +5% SJS | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sharks 47% · Blackhawks 53%
- Final margin
- Blackhawks by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.9 for the Blackhawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Blackhawks by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Sharks 56% · Blackhawks 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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