luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · February 4, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Oilers at Flames, Feb 4, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Flames beat the Oilers 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flames win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 23 points of win probability to the Flames.

The biggest swing (P3, 15:43 left): Kasperi Kapanen scored on a wrist shot from 43 feet, worth 27 points of win probability to the Oilers.

Final

Edmonton Oilers 3
Calgary Flames 4

February 4, 2026 · Scotiabank Saddledome

Luck index +49 Flames lucky · −49 Oilers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oilers win 5, Flames win 5.

  1. 1 EDM 5 CGY 1
  2. 2 EDM 3 CGY 0
  3. 3 EDM 5 CGY 3
  4. 4 EDM 3 CGY 2
  5. 5 EDM 3 CGY 2
  6. 6 EDM 2 CGY 3
  7. 7 EDM 2 CGY 3
  8. 8 EDM 1 CGY 3
  9. 9 EDM 1 CGY 4
  10. 10 EDM 1 CGY 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Oilers win 49% of them, Flames 51%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oilers by 3+20.0%
Oilers by 29.7%
Oilers by 119.2%
Flames by 120.6%
Flames by 210.5%
Flames by 3+20.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 goals to the Flames: the final margin was Flames by 1, without the luck Flames by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Oilers4633.06−0.06
Flames4742.97+1.03

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:06 Tripping on the Oilers (Evan Bouchard): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P1 16:39 Illegal check to head on the Flames (Joel Hanley): 2 minutes on the power play +3% EDM
P1 13:49 Slashing on the Flames (Ryan Lomberg): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P1 5:50 Tripping on the Oilers (Spencer Stastney): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P1 4:20 Tripping on the Oilers (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P2 2:54 Slashing on the Flames (Matt Coronato): 2 minutes on the power play +2% EDM
P3 8:42 Hooking on the Flames (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power play +5% EDM

When it happened

Flames’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flames were ahead in it, below while the Oilers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:48 Jonathan Huberdeau scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 9% chance +14% CGY –
2 P1 14:46 Leon Draisaitl scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% EDM –
3 P1 5:16 Matvei Gridin scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 11% chance +16% CGY –
4 P2 8:17 Connor Zary scored on a deflected shot from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance +13% CGY –
5 P2 1:34 Leon Draisaitl scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 11% chance +13% EDM –
6 P3 15:43 Kasperi Kapanen scored on a wrist shot from 43 feetShooting · 3% chance +27% EDM –
7 P3 13:16 Ryan Lomberg scored on a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 19% chance +23% CGY –
8 P3 8:42 Hooking on the Flames (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% EDM –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oilers 37% · Flames 63%

Final margin
Flames by 1
Luck in goals
0.3 for the Flames
Luck-adjusted margin
Flames by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Oilers 49% · Flames 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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