luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · February 4, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canadiens at Jets, Feb 4, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Canadiens beat the Jets 5–1, but the replays lean toward the Jets: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 53 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

The biggest swing (P2, 14:32 left): Josh Anderson scored on a tip from 9 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

Final

Montreal Canadiens 5
Winnipeg Jets 1

February 4, 2026 · Canada Life Centre

Luck index +75 Canadiens very lucky · −75 Jets

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canadiens win 3, Jets win 7.

  1. 1 MTL 4 WPG 1
  2. 2 MTL 6 WPG 5
  3. 3 MTL 4 WPG 3
  4. 4 MTL 2 WPG 3
  5. 5 MTL 1 WPG 2
  6. 6 MTL 3 WPG 5
  7. 7 MTL 2 WPG 5
  8. 8 MTL 2 WPG 6
  9. 9 MTL 1 WPG 6
  10. 10 MTL 4 WPG 11

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Canadiens win 25% of them, Jets 75%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canadiens by 3+6.6%
Canadiens by 24.6%
Canadiens by 114.1%
Jets by 114.0%
Jets by 210.6%
Jets by 3+50.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 goals to the Canadiens: the final margin was Canadiens by 4, without the luck Canadiens by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canadiens3442.51+1.49
Jets6215.51−4.51

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 15:11 High sticking on the Canadiens (Josh Anderson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P1 2:12 Slashing on the Jets (Gustav Nyquist): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P1 0:36 Interference on the Canadiens (Zachary Bolduc): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P3 17:59 Holding on the Canadiens (Alexandre Carrier): 2 minutes on the power play +3% WPG
P3 11:00 Slashing on the Jets (Josh Morrissey): 2 minutes on the power play +2% MTL
P3 1:48 Tripping on the Canadiens (Brendan Gallagher): 2 minutes on the power play 0% WPG

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Canadiens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:53 Kyle Connor scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 17% chance +13% WPG –
2 P1 3:34 Oliver Kapanen scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 11% chance +16% MTL –
3 P1 0:36 Interference on the Canadiens (Zachary Bolduc): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% WPG –
4 P2 14:32 Josh Anderson scored on a tip from 9 feetShooting · 8% chance +19% MTL –
5 P2 14:09 Nino Niederreiter missed the net with a wrist shot from 3 feetShooting · 40% chance +8% MTL –
6 P2 13:16 Lane Hutson scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% MTL –
7 P3 17:31 Cole Perfetti’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 39% chance +6% MTL –
8 P3 17:03 Gabriel Vilardi missed the net with a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 28% chance +4% MTL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canadiens 80% · Jets 20%

Final margin
Canadiens by 4
Luck in goals
1.9 for the Canadiens
Luck-adjusted margin
Canadiens by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Canadiens 25% · Jets 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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