luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · February 4, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Blackhawks at Blue Jackets, Feb 4, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Blue Jackets beat the Blackhawks 4–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blue Jackets win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 17 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.

The biggest swing (P1, 15:14 left): Zach Werenski scored on a snap shot from 26 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.

Final

Chicago Blackhawks 0
Columbus Blue Jackets 4

February 4, 2026 · Nationwide Arena

Luck index +48 Blue Jackets lucky · −48 Blackhawks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Blackhawks win 5, Blue Jackets win 5.

  1. 1 CHI 6 CBJ 3
  2. 2 CHI 7 CBJ 5
  3. 3 CHI 2 CBJ 0
  4. 4 CHI 2 CBJ 1
  5. 5 CHI 5 CBJ 4
  6. 6 CHI 3 CBJ 4
  7. 7 CHI 1 CBJ 2
  8. 8 CHI 4 CBJ 6
  9. 9 CHI 2 CBJ 5
  10. 10 CHI 2 CBJ 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Blackhawks win 48% of them, Blue Jackets 52%. The line is what actually happened: Blue Jackets by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Blackhawks by 3+16.1%
Blackhawks by 210.1%
Blackhawks by 121.8%
Blue Jackets by 123.0%
Blue Jackets by 211.1%
Blue Jackets by 3+17.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 goals to the Blue Jackets: the final margin was Blue Jackets by 4, without the luck Blue Jackets by 1.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Blackhawks4302.60−2.60
Blue Jackets3332.24+0.76

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 17:05 Hooking on the Blue Jackets (Danton Heinen): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CHI
P2 11:18 Slashing on the Blue Jackets (Sean Monahan): 2 minutes on the power play +1% CHI
P2 4:51 Tripping on the Blue Jackets (Damon Severson): 2 minutes on the power play +1% CHI
P3 8:33 Tripping on the Blackhawks (Louis Crevier): 2 minutes on the power play 0% CBJ

When it happened

Blue Jackets’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blue Jackets were ahead in it, below while the Blackhawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:55 Sean Monahan’s snap shot from 12 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance +2% CHI –
2 P1 15:14 Zach Werenski scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 4% chance +15% CBJ –
3 P1 12:29 Mathieu Olivier missed the net with a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 1% chanceCharlie Coyle slap, 15 ft: above crossbar (16% chance)Shooting +2% CHI –
4 P1 7:10 Ivan Provorov scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 9% chance +12% CBJ –
5 P2 17:05 Hooking on the Blue Jackets (Danton Heinen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% CHI –
6 P2 16:53 Frank Nazar’s wrist shot from 12 feet was savedShooting · 11% chance +2% CBJ –
7 P2 14:43 Danton Heinen scored on a wrist shot from 15 feetShooting · 6% chance +8% CBJ –
8 P2 3:35 Frank Nazar’s snap shot from 20 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +1% CBJ –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Blackhawks 25% · Blue Jackets 75%

Final margin
Blue Jackets by 4
Luck in goals
2.7 for the Blue Jackets
Luck-adjusted margin
Blue Jackets by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Blackhawks 48% · Blue Jackets 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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