luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · February 2, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Flames, Feb 2, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Maple Leafs beat the Flames 4–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Maple Leafs win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 19 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

The biggest swing (P2, 4:14 left): Joel Farabee scored on a tip from 5 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Flames.

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Calgary Flames 2

February 2, 2026 · Scotiabank Saddledome

Luck index +53 Maple Leafs lucky · −53 Flames

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 5, Flames win 5.

  1. 1 TOR 3 CGY 0
  2. 2 TOR 4 CGY 2
  3. 3 TOR 2 CGY 1
  4. 4 TOR 3 CGY 2
  5. 5 TOR 2 CGY 1
  6. 6 TOR 4 CGY 5
  7. 7 TOR 2 CGY 3
  8. 8 TOR 0 CGY 2
  9. 9 TOR 0 CGY 3
  10. 10 TOR 1 CGY 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 47% of them, Flames 53%. The line is what actually happened: Maple Leafs by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+13.2%
Maple Leafs by 29.6%
Maple Leafs by 123.8%
Flames by 125.6%
Flames by 211.5%
Flames by 3+16.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 goals to the Maple Leafs: the final margin was Maple Leafs by 2, without the luck Maple Leafs by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs3432.06+0.94
Flames4322.21−0.21

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 2:14 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Matthew Knies): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CGY

When it happened

Flames’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flames were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:25 William Nylander scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 9% chance +14% TOR –
2 P2 12:43 Matias Maccelli scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 17% chance +13% TOR –
3 P2 10:50 Troy Stecher scored on a backhand shot from 4 feetShooting · 19% chance +8% TOR –
4 P2 6:45 Nazem Kadri scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 7% chance +8% CGY –
5 P2 4:14 Joel Farabee scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 11% chance +15% CGY –
6 P2 2:14 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Matthew Knies): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CGY –
7 P3 5:48 Adam Klapka’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance +5% TOR –
8 P3 3:45 Matt Coronato’s snap shot from 24 feet was savedShooting · 8% chance +3% TOR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 67% · Flames 33%

Final margin
Maple Leafs by 2
Luck in goals
1.3 for the Maple Leafs
Luck-adjusted margin
Maple Leafs by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 47% · Flames 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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