Blackhawks unlucky 3 
Wild lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Wild win 26% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Jan 26, 2026 – Feb 1, 2026
NHL week 17: who deserved to win
7 of 50 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Wild beat the Blackhawks 4–3 (SO) in a game they win 26% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 50 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Blackhawks unlucky 3 Wild lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Wild win 26% of replays 
Maple Leafs unlucky 2 
Kraken lucky 5 Replays favor loser · Kraken win 28% of replays 
Canadiens lucky 4 
Sabres unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 32% of replays 
Golden Knights unlucky 2 Canadiens lucky 3 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 32% of replays 
Flyers unlucky 3 
Bruins lucky 6 Replays favor loser · Bruins win 38% of replays 
Islanders lucky 4 Flyers unlucky 0 Replays favor loser · Islanders win 40% of replays 
Mammoth lucky 4 
Panthers unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Mammoth win 40% of replays Flyers 3 
Blue Jackets 5 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 40% of replays Islanders 2 
Rangers 1 Coin flip · Islanders win 40% of replays Blue Jackets 5 
Blues 3 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 40% of replays Golden Knights 3 
Ducks 4 Coin flip · Ducks win 41% of replays Wild 7 
Oilers 3 Coin flip · Wild win 42% of replays 
Predators 2 Bruins 3 Coin flip · Bruins win 42% of replays 
Avalanche 3 Canadiens 7 Coin flip · Canadiens win 43% of replays Panthers 4 Blues 5 Coin flip · Blues win 43% of replays Kraken 3 Golden Knights 2 Coin flip · Kraken win 46% of replays Bruins 5 
Lightning 6 Coin flip · Lightning win 47% of replays Ducks 0 
Canucks 2 Coin flip · Canucks win 48% of replays Mammoth 0 Lightning 2 Coin flip · Lightning win 48% of replays 
Kings 3 
Red Wings 1 Coin flip · Kings win 49% of replays 
Capitals 4 Red Wings 3 Coin flip · Capitals win 50% of replays Kings 1 Sabres 4 Coin flip · Sabres win 50% of replays Kings 3 Flyers 2 Coin flip · Kings win 50% of replays Predators 2 
Devils 3 Coin flip · Devils win 50% of replays Ducks 4 Oilers 7 Coin flip · Oilers win 50% of replays Blue Jackets 4 Blackhawks 2 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 50% of replays 
Jets 4 Devils 3 Coin flip · Jets win 52% of replays 
Flames 1 Wild 4 Coin flip · Wild win 53% of replays 
Sharks 3 Oilers 4 Coin flip · Oilers win 53% of replays Jets 2 Panthers 1 Coin flip · Jets win 54% of replays Sabres 7 Maple Leafs 4 Coin flip · Sabres win 55% of replays Sharks 5 Canucks 2 Coin flip · Sharks win 56% of replays Mammoth 4 
Hurricanes 5 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 56% of replays Bruins 3 Rangers 4 Coin flip · Rangers win 59% of replays Capitals 1 Kraken 5 Coin flip · Kraken win 60% of replays Avalanche 2 
Senators 5 Replays agree · Senators win 63% of replays Jets 1 Lightning 4 Replays agree · Lightning win 63% of replays 
Stars 5 Golden Knights 4 Replays agree · Stars win 63% of replays Avalanche 5 Red Wings 0 Replays agree · Avalanche win 64% of replays Devils 1 Senators 4 Replays agree · Senators win 66% of replays Stars 4 Blues 3 Replays agree · Stars win 68% of replays Hurricanes 3 Capitals 4 Replays agree · Capitals win 68% of replays Predators 4 Islanders 3 Replays agree · Predators win 68% of replays Sharks 2 Flames 3 Replays agree · Flames win 69% of replays Stars 3 Mammoth 2 Replays agree · Stars win 71% of replays Rangers 2 Islanders 5 Replays agree · Islanders win 71% of replays Maple Leafs 3 Canucks 2 Replays agree · Maple Leafs win 73% of replays Blackhawks 2 
Penguins 6 Replays agree · Penguins win 74% of replays Kings 2 Hurricanes 3 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 78% of replays Rangers 5 Penguins 6 Replays agree · Penguins win 82% of replays Week 17 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wild | W 4–3 SO vs Blackhawks Jan 27, 2026 | 26% | +74 |
| 2 | Kraken | W 5–2 vs Maple Leafs Jan 29, 2026 | 28% | +72 |
| 3 | Canadiens | W 4–2 @ Sabres Jan 31, 2026 | 32% | +68 |
| 4 | Canadiens | W 3–2 OT vs Golden Knights Jan 27, 2026 | 32% | +68 |
| 5 | Bruins | W 6–3 vs Flyers Jan 29, 2026 | 38% | +62 |
| 6 | Islanders | W 4–0 @ Flyers Jan 26, 2026 | 40% | +60 |
| 7 | Mammoth | W 4–3 @ Panthers Jan 27, 2026 | 40% | +60 |
| 8 | Blue Jackets | W 5–3 vs Flyers Jan 28, 2026 | 40% | +60 |
| 9 | Islanders | W 2–1 @ Rangers Jan 29, 2026 | 40% | +60 |
| 10 | Blue Jackets | W 5–3 @ Blues Jan 31, 2026 | 40% | +60 |
| 11 | Ducks | W 4–3 vs Golden Knights Feb 1, 2026 | 41% | +59 |
| 12 | Wild | W 7–3 @ Oilers Jan 31, 2026 | 42% | +58 |
| 13 | Bruins | W 3–2 OT vs Predators Jan 27, 2026 | 42% | +58 |
| 14 | Canadiens | W 7–3 vs Avalanche Jan 29, 2026 | 43% | +57 |
| 15 | Blues | W 5–4 vs Panthers Jan 29, 2026 | 43% | +57 |
| 16 | Kraken | W 3–2 @ Golden Knights Jan 31, 2026 | 46% | +54 |
| 17 | Lightning | W 6–5 SO vs Bruins Feb 1, 2026 | 47% | +53 |
| 18 | Canucks | W 2–0 vs Ducks Jan 29, 2026 | 48% | +52 |
| 19 | Lightning | W 2–0 vs Mammoth Jan 26, 2026 | 48% | +52 |
| 20 | Kings | W 3–1 @ Red Wings Jan 27, 2026 | 49% | +51 |
| 21 | Capitals | W 4–3 SO @ Red Wings Jan 29, 2026 | 50% | +51 |
| 22 | Sabres | W 4–1 vs Kings Jan 29, 2026 | 50% | +50 |
| 23 | Kings | W 3–2 OT @ Flyers Jan 31, 2026 | 50% | +50 |
| 24 | Devils | W 3–2 OT vs Predators Jan 29, 2026 | 50% | +50 |
| 25 | Oilers | W 7–4 vs Ducks Jan 26, 2026 | 50% | +50 |
| 26 | Blue Jackets | W 4–2 @ Blackhawks Jan 30, 2026 | 50% | +50 |
| 27 | Jets | W 4–3 @ Devils Jan 27, 2026 | 52% | +48 |
| 28 | Wild | W 4–1 vs Flames Jan 29, 2026 | 53% | +47 |
| 29 | Oilers | W 4–3 OT vs Sharks Jan 29, 2026 | 53% | +47 |
| 30 | Jets | W 2–1 @ Panthers Jan 31, 2026 | 54% | +46 |
| 31 | Sabres | W 7–4 @ Maple Leafs Jan 27, 2026 | 55% | +45 |
| 32 | Sharks | W 5–2 @ Canucks Jan 27, 2026 | 56% | +44 |
| 33 | Hurricanes | W 5–4 vs Mammoth Jan 29, 2026 | 56% | +44 |
| 34 | Rangers | W 4–3 OT vs Bruins Jan 26, 2026 | 59% | +41 |
| 35 | Kraken | W 5–1 vs Capitals Jan 27, 2026 | 60% | +40 |
| 36 | Senators | W 5–2 vs Avalanche Jan 28, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 37 | Lightning | W 4–1 vs Jets Jan 29, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 38 | Stars | W 5–4 SO @ Golden Knights Jan 29, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 39 | Avalanche | W 5–0 @ Red Wings Jan 31, 2026 | 64% | +36 |
| 40 | Senators | W 4–1 vs Devils Jan 31, 2026 | 66% | +34 |
| 41 | Stars | W 4–3 @ Blues Jan 27, 2026 | 68% | +32 |
| 42 | Capitals | W 4–3 OT vs Hurricanes Jan 31, 2026 | 68% | +32 |
| 43 | Predators | W 4–3 @ Islanders Jan 31, 2026 | 68% | +32 |
| 44 | Flames | W 3–2 vs Sharks Jan 31, 2026 | 69% | +31 |
| 45 | Stars | W 3–2 @ Mammoth Jan 31, 2026 | 71% | +29 |
| 46 | Islanders | W 5–2 vs Rangers Jan 28, 2026 | 71% | +29 |
| 47 | Maple Leafs | W 3–2 SO @ Canucks Jan 31, 2026 | 73% | +27 |
| 48 | Penguins | W 6–2 vs Blackhawks Jan 29, 2026 | 74% | +26 |
| 49 | Hurricanes | W 3–2 OT vs Kings Feb 1, 2026 | 78% | +22 |
| 50 | Penguins | W 6–5 vs Rangers Jan 31, 2026 | 82% | +18 |
| 51 | Rangers | L 5–6 @ Penguins Jan 31, 2026 | 18% | −18 |
| 52 | Kings | L 2–3 OT @ Hurricanes Feb 1, 2026 | 22% | −22 |
| 53 | Blackhawks | L 2–6 @ Penguins Jan 29, 2026 | 26% | −26 |
| 54 | Canucks | L 2–3 SO vs Maple Leafs Jan 31, 2026 | 27% | −27 |
| 55 | Rangers | L 2–5 @ Islanders Jan 28, 2026 | 29% | −29 |
| 56 | Mammoth | L 2–3 vs Stars Jan 31, 2026 | 29% | −29 |
| 57 | Sharks | L 2–3 @ Flames Jan 31, 2026 | 31% | −31 |
| 58 | Islanders | L 3–4 vs Predators Jan 31, 2026 | 32% | −32 |
| 59 | Hurricanes | L 3–4 OT @ Capitals Jan 31, 2026 | 32% | −32 |
| 60 | Blues | L 3–4 vs Stars Jan 27, 2026 | 32% | −32 |
| 61 | Devils | L 1–4 @ Senators Jan 31, 2026 | 34% | −34 |
| 62 | Red Wings | L 0–5 vs Avalanche Jan 31, 2026 | 36% | −36 |
| 63 | Golden Knights | L 4–5 SO vs Stars Jan 29, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 64 | Jets | L 1–4 @ Lightning Jan 29, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 65 | Avalanche | L 2–5 @ Senators Jan 28, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 66 | Capitals | L 1–5 @ Kraken Jan 27, 2026 | 40% | −40 |
| 67 | Bruins | L 3–4 OT @ Rangers Jan 26, 2026 | 41% | −41 |
| 68 | Mammoth | L 4–5 @ Hurricanes Jan 29, 2026 | 44% | −44 |
| 69 | Canucks | L 2–5 vs Sharks Jan 27, 2026 | 44% | −44 |
| 70 | Maple Leafs | L 4–7 vs Sabres Jan 27, 2026 | 45% | −45 |
| 71 | Panthers | L 1–2 vs Jets Jan 31, 2026 | 46% | −46 |
| 72 | Sharks | L 3–4 OT @ Oilers Jan 29, 2026 | 47% | −47 |
| 73 | Flames | L 1–4 @ Wild Jan 29, 2026 | 47% | −47 |
| 74 | Devils | L 3–4 vs Jets Jan 27, 2026 | 48% | −48 |
| 75 | Blackhawks | L 2–4 vs Blue Jackets Jan 30, 2026 | 50% | −50 |
| 76 | Ducks | L 4–7 @ Oilers Jan 26, 2026 | 50% | −50 |
| 77 | Predators | L 2–3 OT @ Devils Jan 29, 2026 | 50% | −50 |
| 78 | Flyers | L 2–3 OT vs Kings Jan 31, 2026 | 50% | −50 |
| 79 | Kings | L 1–4 @ Sabres Jan 29, 2026 | 50% | −50 |
| 80 | Red Wings | L 3–4 SO vs Capitals Jan 29, 2026 | 51% | −51 |
| 81 | Red Wings | L 1–3 vs Kings Jan 27, 2026 | 51% | −51 |
| 82 | Mammoth | L 0–2 @ Lightning Jan 26, 2026 | 52% | −52 |
| 83 | Ducks | L 0–2 @ Canucks Jan 29, 2026 | 52% | −52 |
| 84 | Bruins | L 5–6 SO @ Lightning Feb 1, 2026 | 53% | −53 |
| 85 | Golden Knights | L 2–3 vs Kraken Jan 31, 2026 | 54% | −54 |
| 86 | Panthers | L 4–5 @ Blues Jan 29, 2026 | 57% | −57 |
| 87 | Avalanche | L 3–7 @ Canadiens Jan 29, 2026 | 57% | −57 |
| 88 | Predators | L 2–3 OT @ Bruins Jan 27, 2026 | 58% | −58 |
| 89 | Oilers | L 3–7 vs Wild Jan 31, 2026 | 58% | −58 |
| 90 | Golden Knights | L 3–4 @ Ducks Feb 1, 2026 | 59% | −59 |
| 91 | Blues | L 3–5 vs Blue Jackets Jan 31, 2026 | 60% | −60 |
| 92 | Rangers | L 1–2 vs Islanders Jan 29, 2026 | 60% | −60 |
| 93 | Flyers | L 3–5 @ Blue Jackets Jan 28, 2026 | 60% | −60 |
| 94 | Panthers | L 3–4 vs Mammoth Jan 27, 2026 | 60% | −60 |
| 95 | Flyers | L 0–4 vs Islanders Jan 26, 2026 | 60% | −60 |
| 96 | Flyers | L 3–6 @ Bruins Jan 29, 2026 | 62% | −62 |
| 97 | Golden Knights | L 2–3 OT @ Canadiens Jan 27, 2026 | 68% | −68 |
| 98 | Sabres | L 2–4 vs Canadiens Jan 31, 2026 | 68% | −68 |
| 99 | Maple Leafs | L 2–5 @ Kraken Jan 29, 2026 | 72% | −72 |
| 100 | Blackhawks | L 3–4 SO @ Wild Jan 27, 2026 | 74% | −74 |