luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 31, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Stars at Mammoth, Jan 31, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Stars beat the Mammoth 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Mammoth had the bounces: empty-net goals alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

The biggest swing (P1, 9:37 left): Kailer Yamamoto scored on a snap shot from 32 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

Final

Dallas Stars 3
Utah Mammoth 2

January 31, 2026 · Delta Center

Luck index +29 Stars lucky · −29 Mammoth

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Stars win 7, Mammoth win 3.

  1. 1 DAL 5 UTA 0
  2. 2 DAL 5 UTA 1
  3. 3 DAL 3 UTA 0
  4. 4 DAL 4 UTA 1
  5. 5 DAL 3 UTA 1
  6. 6 DAL 2 UTA 1
  7. 7 DAL 3 UTA 2
  8. 8 DAL 4 UTA 5
  9. 9 DAL 1 UTA 2
  10. 10 DAL 3 UTA 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Stars win 71% of them, Mammoth 29%. The line is what actually happened: Stars by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Stars by 3+39.9%
Stars by 212.7%
Stars by 118.7%
Mammoth by 118.4%
Mammoth by 24.7%
Mammoth by 3+5.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 goals to the Mammoth: the final margin was Stars by 1, without the luck Stars by 3.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Stars4833.38−0.38
Mammoth2621.84+0.16

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 19:12 Delaying game puck over glass on the Mammoth (Sean Durzi): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P1 13:22 Delaying game puck over glass on the Mammoth (Jack McBain): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P1 9:37 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Stars (DAL): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P1 6:56 Tripping on the Stars (Mikko Rantanen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 0:59 Hooking on the Mammoth (Nate Schmidt): 2 minutes on the power play +3% DAL
P3 7:47 Broken stick on the Mammoth (Nate Schmidt): 2 minutes on the power play +6% DAL

When it happened

Mammoth’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Mammoth were ahead in it, below while the Stars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:49 Thomas Harley scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 28% chance +12% DAL –
2 P1 12:18 Wyatt Johnston scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 15% chance +13% DAL –
3 P1 9:37 Kailer Yamamoto scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 9% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Stars (DAL): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +17% UTA –
4 P1 3:23 Matt Duchene scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 10% chance +14% DAL –
5 P3 13:19 Kailer Yamamoto scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 11% chance +14% UTA –
6 P3 10:14 Jack McBain missed the net with a bat shot from 5 feetShooting · 19% chance +6% DAL –
7 P3 7:47 Broken stick on the Mammoth (Nate Schmidt): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% DAL –
8 P3 1:16 Esa Lindell missed the net with a snap shot from 26 feetEmpty-net goals · 86% chance +5% UTA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Stars 97% · Mammoth 3%

Final margin
Stars by 1
Luck in goals
2.1 for the Mammoth
Luck-adjusted margin
Stars by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Stars 71% · Mammoth 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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