luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 29, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Avalanche at Canadiens, Jan 29, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Canadiens beat the Avalanche 7–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Canadiens win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

The biggest swing (P1, 15:51 left): Brock Nelson scored on a snap shot from 42 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Avalanche.

Final

Colorado Avalanche 3
Montreal Canadiens 7

January 29, 2026 · Centre Bell

Luck index +57 Canadiens lucky · −57 Avalanche

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Avalanche win 6, Canadiens win 4.

  1. 1 COL 6 MTL 1
  2. 2 COL 5 MTL 2
  3. 3 COL 3 MTL 0
  4. 4 COL 5 MTL 3
  5. 5 COL 4 MTL 3
  6. 6 COL 5 MTL 4
  7. 7 COL 1 MTL 2
  8. 8 COL 1 MTL 2
  9. 9 COL 4 MTL 6
  10. 10 COL 1 MTL 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Avalanche win 57% of them, Canadiens 43%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Avalanche by 3+28.0%
Avalanche by 210.9%
Avalanche by 118.4%
Canadiens by 119.6%
Canadiens by 28.8%
Canadiens by 3+14.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 goals to the Canadiens: the final margin was Canadiens by 4, without the luck Canadiens by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Avalanche4033.67−0.67
Canadiens4372.83+4.17

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:36 Cross checking on the Avalanche (Keaton Middleton): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P1 13:46 Tripping on the Canadiens (Josh Anderson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% COL
P2 19:23 High sticking on the Canadiens (Cole Caufield): 2 minutes on the power play +3% COL
P2 16:46 High sticking on the Avalanche (Sam Malinski): 2 minutes on the power play +3% MTL

When it happened

Canadiens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canadiens were ahead in it, below while the Avalanche were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:04 Noah Dobson scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 5% chance +15% MTL –
2 P1 15:51 Brock Nelson scored on a snap shot from 42 feetShooting · 5% chance +15% COL –
3 P1 14:36 Cross checking on the Avalanche (Keaton Middleton): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% MTL –
4 P1 14:09 Nick Suzuki scored on a snap shot from 6 feetShooting · 30% chance +11% MTL –
5 P1 12:27 Nick Suzuki scored on a backhand shot from 9 feetShooting · 12% chance +12% MTL –
6 P2 18:43 Nathan MacKinnon’s snap shot from 13 feet was savedShooting · 26% chance +4% MTL –
7 P2 3:24 Jake Evans scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 5% chance +6% MTL –
8 P3 14:15 Alexandre Carrier scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 16% chance +4% MTL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Avalanche 49% · Canadiens 51%

Final margin
Canadiens by 4
Luck in goals
3.6 for the Canadiens
Luck-adjusted margin
Canadiens by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Avalanche 57% · Canadiens 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 17 2025-26 games · Avalanche · Canadiens

More from week 17, 2025-26

Every game of week 17, 2025-26