luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · February 1, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Bruins at Lightning, Feb 1, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Lightning beat the Bruins 6–5, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Lightning win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Lightning.

The biggest swing (SO): the Lightning won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Lightning.

Final (SO)

Boston Bruins 5
Tampa Bay Lightning 6

February 1, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium

Luck index +53 Lightning lucky · −53 Bruins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bruins win 5, Lightning win 5.

  1. 1 BOS 8 TBL 3
  2. 2 BOS 4 TBL 1
  3. 3 BOS 8 TBL 6
  4. 4 BOS 5 TBL 4
  5. 5 BOS 5 TBL 4
  6. 6 BOS 3 TBL 4
  7. 7 BOS 0 TBL 1
  8. 8 BOS 3 TBL 5
  9. 9 BOS 4 TBL 7
  10. 10 BOS 2 TBL 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Bruins win 53% of them, Lightning 47%. The line is what actually happened: Lightning by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bruins by 3+25.7%
Bruins by 29.0%
Bruins by 117.8%
Lightning by 119.1%
Lightning by 29.4%
Lightning by 3+19.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 goals to the Lightning: the final margin was Lightning by 1, without the luck Bruins by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Bruins4353.61+1.39
Lightning5153.45+1.55

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 15:03 High sticking on the Lightning (Dominic James): 2 minutes on the power play +3% BOS
P1 14:58 Tripping on the Bruins (Viktor Arvidsson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TBL
P1 12:12 Tripping on the Lightning (Pontus Holmberg): 2 minutes on the power play +3% BOS
P1 3:05 Tripping on the Lightning (Jake Guentzel): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BOS
P2 10:53 Roughing on the Bruins (Charlie McAvoy): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TBL
P2 9:32 Roughing on the Bruins (Mark Kastelic): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TBL
P2 5:57 Delaying game puck over glass on the Bruins (Jeremy Swayman): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TBL
P2 5:44 Interference on the Bruins (Tanner Jeannot): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TBL
P2 4:15 Closing hand on puck on the Bruins (Sean Kuraly): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TBL
OT 4:42 Slashing on the Bruins (David Pastrnak): 2 minutes on the power play +12% TBL
OT 0:25 Hooking on the Bruins (Hampus Lindholm): 2 minutes on the power play +12% TBL

When it happened

Lightning’ chance of winning

As low as 2% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Lightning were ahead in it, below while the Bruins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:49 Brandon Hagel scored on a snap shot from 11 feetShooting · 20% chance +12% TBL –
2 P1 8:36 Alex Steeves scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 21% chance +13% BOS –
3 P1 4:24 Morgan Geekie scored on a tip from 9 feetShooting · 12% chance +16% BOS –
4 P1 1:57 Viktor Arvidsson scored on a tip from 11 feetShooting · 9% chance +14% BOS –
5 P2 3:47 Nick Paul scored on a tip from 6 feetShooting · 16% chance +14% TBL –
6 P3 8:10 Nikita Kucherov scored on a slap shot from 39 feetShooting · 4% chance +33% TBL –
7 SO The Lightning won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +51% TBL –
8 OT 4:42 Slashing on the Bruins (David Pastrnak): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% TBL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bruins 53% · Lightning 47%

Final margin
Lightning by 1
Luck in goals
1.1 for the Lightning
Luck-adjusted margin
Bruins by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Bruins 53% · Lightning 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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