2025-26 regular season · January 31, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Canadiens at Sabres, Jan 31, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Canadiens beat the Sabres 4–2, but the replays lean toward the Sabres: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 56 points of win probability to the Canadiens.
The game turned on a luck play (P3, 15:46 left): Cole Caufield scored on a tip from 16 feet, worth 25 points of win probability to the Canadiens. The biggest single swing (P3, 9:47 left): Cole Caufield scored on a snap shot from 7 feet.
Final
 Montreal Canadiens | 4 |
|---|---|
 Buffalo Sabres | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +68 Canadiens very lucky · −68 Sabres
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Canadiens win 3, Sabres win 7.
- 1 MTL 8 BUF 5
- 2 MTL 6 BUF 4
- 3 MTL 3 BUF 2
- 4 MTL 3 BUF 4
- 5 MTL 2 BUF 3
- 6 MTL 6 BUF 8
- 7 MTL 1 BUF 4
- 8 MTL 4 BUF 7
- 9 MTL 1 BUF 5
- 10 MTL 0 BUF 6
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Canadiens win 32% of them, Sabres 68%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Canadiens by 3+ | 10.3% |
| Canadiens by 2 | 6.0% |
| Canadiens by 1 | 15.7% |
| Sabres by 1 | 16.6% |
| Sabres by 2 | 11.1% |
| Sabres by 3+ | 40.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Canadiens | 39 | 3 | 2.69 | +0.31 |
 Sabres | 56 | 2 | 4.81 | −2.81 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 10:00 | Interference on the Sabres (Tage Thompson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P1 0:54 | Tripping on the Sabres (Bowen Byram): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P2 19:02 | Tripping on the Canadiens (Lane Hutson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BUF |
| P2 17:14 | Hooking on the Sabres (Ryan McLeod): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P2 5:39 | High sticking on the Canadiens (Noah Dobson): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% BUF |
| P2 3:02 | High sticking on the Canadiens (Lane Hutson): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% BUF |
| P3 3:36 | Holding on the Canadiens (Kirby Dach): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% BUF |
When it happened
Sabres’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 8:40 | Juraj Slafkovský scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 15% chance | +15% MTL | – |
| 2 | P2 12:24 | Owen Power scored on a wrist shot from 38 feetShooting · 5% chance | +20% BUF | – |
| 3 | P2 10:46 | Josh Doan’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 30% chance | +6% MTL | – |
| 4 | P2 1:02 | Noah Ostlund scored on a slap shot from 25 feetShooting · 22% chance | +19% BUF | – |
| 5 | P3 19:20 | Lane Hutson’s backhand shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 35% chance | +9% BUF | – |
| 6 | P3 15:46 | The game turned hereCole Caufield scored on a tip from 16 feetShooting · 8% chance | +25% MTL | – |
| 7 | P3 9:47 | Cole Caufield scored on a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 24% chance | +25% MTL | – |
| 8 | P3 8:47 | Owen Power’s snap shot from 13 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance | +6% MTL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Canadiens 60% · Sabres 40%
- Final margin
- Canadiens by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for the Canadiens
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Canadiens by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Canadiens 32% · Sabres 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 17, 2025-26
- Maple Leafs at Kraken Jan 29, 2026 · SEA 5–2 · replay 28% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Canadiens Jan 27, 2026 · MTL 3–2 OT · replay 32% for the winner
- Flyers at Bruins Jan 29, 2026 · BOS 6–3 · replay 38% for the winner
- Mammoth at Panthers Jan 27, 2026 · UTA 4–3 · replay 40% for the winner
- Predators at Bruins Jan 27, 2026 · BOS 3–2 OT · replay 42% for the winner
- Avalanche at Canadiens Jan 29, 2026 · MTL 7–3 · replay 43% for the winner
- Panthers at Blues Jan 29, 2026 · STL 5–4 · replay 43% for the winner
- Bruins at Lightning Feb 1, 2026 · TBL 6–5 SO · replay 47% for the winner
- Mammoth at Lightning Jan 26, 2026 · TBL 2–0 · replay 48% for the winner
- Kings at Red Wings Jan 27, 2026 · LAK 3–1 · replay 49% for the winner
- Capitals at Red Wings Jan 29, 2026 · WSH 4–3 SO · replay 50% for the winner
- Kings at Sabres Jan 29, 2026 · BUF 4–1 · replay 50% for the winner