luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 29, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Capitals at Red Wings, Jan 29, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Capitals beat the Red Wings 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Capitals win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Capitals.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Capitals won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Capitals.

Final (SO)

Washington Capitals 4
Detroit Red Wings 3

January 29, 2026 · Little Caesars Arena

Luck index +51 Capitals lucky · −51 Red Wings

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Capitals win 5, Red Wings win 5.

  1. 1 WSH 3 DET 0
  2. 2 WSH 5 DET 3
  3. 3 WSH 2 DET 1
  4. 4 WSH 2 DET 1
  5. 5 WSH 1 DET 0
  6. 6 WSH 1 DET 2
  7. 7 WSH 1 DET 2
  8. 8 WSH 1 DET 2
  9. 9 WSH 0 DET 2
  10. 10 WSH 0 DET 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Capitals win 49% of them, Red Wings 51%. The line is what actually happened: Capitals by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Capitals by 3+12.9%
Capitals by 210.6%
Capitals by 126.1%
Red Wings by 126.7%
Red Wings by 210.7%
Red Wings by 3+13.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 goals to the Capitals: the final margin was Capitals by 1, without the luck Red Wings by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Capitals2831.64+1.36
Red Wings3832.30+0.70

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:54 Delaying game puck over glass on the Capitals (John Carlson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P1 18:00 A Red Wings goal came off the board on review (off side) +16% WSH
P1 2:02 Tripping on the Capitals (Trevor van Riemsdyk): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P2 15:15 Tripping on the Capitals (Charlie Lindgren): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P3 13:48 Delaying game puck over glass on the Red Wings (Ben Chiarot): 2 minutes on the power play +7% WSH
P3 10:24 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Red Wings (DET): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WSH
P3 8:08 Too many men on the ice on the Capitals (WSH): 2 minutes on the power play +6% DET

When it happened

Red Wings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Red Wings were ahead in it, below while the Capitals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:00 A Red Wings goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals +16% WSH –
2 P1 13:33 Nic Dowd scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 6% chance +16% WSH –
3 P2 10:08 Ben Chiarot scored on a slap shot from 52 feetShooting · 3% chance +21% DET –
4 P3 13:48 Delaying game puck over glass on the Red Wings (Ben Chiarot): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +7% WSH –
5 P3 10:24 Dylan Strome scored on a wraparound from 6 feetShooting · 8% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Red Wings (DET): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +35% WSH –
6 P3 5:16 Declan Chisholm scored on a deflected shot from 20 feetShooting · 8% chance +10% WSH –
7 P3 0:53 Alex DeBrincat scored on a wrist shot from 92 feetShooting · 1% chance +45% DET –
8 SO The game turned hereThe Capitals won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% WSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Capitals 37% · Red Wings 63%

Final margin
Capitals by 1
Luck in goals
1.5 for the Capitals
Luck-adjusted margin
Red Wings by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Capitals 49% · Red Wings 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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