luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 29, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Kraken, Jan 29, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Kraken beat the Maple Leafs 5–2, but the replays lean toward the Maple Leafs: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 34 points of win probability to the Kraken.

The biggest swing (P2, 13:37 left): Shane Wright scored on a backhand shot from 17 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Kraken.

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Seattle Kraken 5

January 29, 2026 · Climate Pledge Arena

Luck index +72 Kraken very lucky · −72 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 7, Kraken win 3.

  1. 1 TOR 6 SEA 1
  2. 2 TOR 4 SEA 0
  3. 3 TOR 3 SEA 0
  4. 4 TOR 5 SEA 2
  5. 5 TOR 3 SEA 1
  6. 6 TOR 2 SEA 1
  7. 7 TOR 1 SEA 0
  8. 8 TOR 4 SEA 5
  9. 9 TOR 1 SEA 2
  10. 10 TOR 0 SEA 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 72% of them, Kraken 28%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+38.0%
Maple Leafs by 213.1%
Maple Leafs by 120.7%
Kraken by 118.8%
Kraken by 25.8%
Kraken by 3+3.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 goals to the Kraken: the final margin was Kraken by 3, without the luck Maple Leafs by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs5023.23−1.23
Kraken2841.22+2.78

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:25 Hooking on the Kraken (Adam Larsson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TOR
P1 1:03 Interference on the Maple Leafs (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P2 2:49 Slashing on the Kraken (Vince Dunn): 2 minutes on the power play +2% TOR
P3 15:03 Holding on the Kraken (Shane Wright): 2 minutes on the power play +2% TOR
P3 10:23 Interference on the Maple Leafs (Brandon Carlo): 2 minutes on the power play +2% SEA

When it happened

Kraken’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Kraken were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:39 Matty Beniers scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 11% chance +14% SEA –
2 P1 13:25 Hooking on the Kraken (Adam Larsson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% TOR –
3 P1 4:58 Nicholas Robertson scored on a slap shot from 38 feetShooting · 8% chance +16% TOR –
4 P1 1:03 Interference on the Maple Leafs (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% SEA –
5 P2 13:37 Shane Wright scored on a backhand shot from 17 feetShooting · 9% chance +18% SEA –
6 P2 13:06 Brandon Montour scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 6% chance +14% SEA –
7 P3 13:56 Morgan Rielly scored on a wrist shot from 61 feetShooting · 1% chance +14% TOR –
8 P3 11:28 Shane Wright scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 7% chance +13% SEA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 60% · Kraken 40%

Final margin
Kraken by 3
Luck in goals
3.6 for the Kraken
Luck-adjusted margin
Maple Leafs by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 72% · Kraken 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 17 2025-26 games · Maple Leafs · Kraken

More from week 17, 2025-26

Every game of week 17, 2025-26