luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 29, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Ducks at Canucks, Jan 29, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Canucks beat the Ducks 2–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Canucks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 58 points of win probability to the Canucks.

The biggest swing (P3, 9:42 left): Drew O'Connor scored on a slap shot from 24 feet, worth 28 points of win probability to the Canucks.

Final

Anaheim Ducks 0
Vancouver Canucks 2

January 29, 2026 · Rogers Arena

Luck index +52 Canucks lucky · −52 Ducks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ducks win 5, Canucks win 5.

  1. 1 ANA 7 VAN 3
  2. 2 ANA 5 VAN 2
  3. 3 ANA 5 VAN 3
  4. 4 ANA 5 VAN 4
  5. 5 ANA 3 VAN 2
  6. 6 ANA 1 VAN 2
  7. 7 ANA 3 VAN 4
  8. 8 ANA 2 VAN 4
  9. 9 ANA 1 VAN 4
  10. 10 ANA 1 VAN 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Ducks win 52% of them, Canucks 48%. The line is what actually happened: Canucks by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ducks by 3+20.3%
Ducks by 210.7%
Ducks by 121.2%
Canucks by 120.1%
Canucks by 29.9%
Canucks by 3+17.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 goals to the Canucks: the final margin was Canucks by 2, without the luck Canucks by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Ducks4903.14−3.14
Canucks4212.73−1.73

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:12 Tripping on the Canucks (Jake DeBrusk): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 5:21 Slashing on the Ducks (Jeffrey Viel): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P1 2:01 Interference goalkeeper on the Ducks (Ryan Poehling): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P2 15:37 Holding on the Canucks (Tyler Myers): 2 minutes on the power play +5% ANA
P3 17:07 Cross checking on the Ducks (Drew Helleson): 2 minutes on the power play +6% VAN
P3 0:49 Slashing on the Canucks (Conor Garland): 2 minutes on the power play +6% ANA

When it happened

Canucks’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canucks were ahead in it, below while the Ducks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 2:01 Interference goalkeeper on the Ducks (Ryan Poehling): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% VAN –
2 P2 15:37 Holding on the Canucks (Tyler Myers): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% ANA –
3 P2 1:14 Elias Pettersson’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance +4% ANA –
4 P3 17:07 Cross checking on the Ducks (Drew Helleson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% VAN –
5 P3 9:42 Drew O'Connor scored on a slap shot from 24 feetShooting · 14% chance +28% VAN –
6 P3 7:42 Olen Zellweger’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance +7% VAN –
7 P3 1:48 Alex Killorn tip in, 9 ft: above crossbar (10% chance)Shooting +4% VAN –
8 P3 0:49 Slashing on the Canucks (Conor Garland): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% ANA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ducks 24% · Canucks 76%

Final margin
Canucks by 2
Luck in goals
0.8 for the Canucks
Luck-adjusted margin
Canucks by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Ducks 52% · Canucks 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 17 2025-26 games · Ducks · Canucks

More from week 17, 2025-26

Every game of week 17, 2025-26