luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 29, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Sharks at Oilers, Jan 29, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Oilers beat the Sharks 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Oilers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Oilers.

The biggest swing (OT): the Oilers won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Oilers.

Final (OT)

San Jose Sharks 3
Edmonton Oilers 4

January 29, 2026 · Rogers Place

Luck index +47 Oilers lucky · −47 Sharks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sharks win 5, Oilers win 5.

  1. 1 SJS 5 EDM 1
  2. 2 SJS 4 EDM 2
  3. 3 SJS 2 EDM 1
  4. 4 SJS 4 EDM 3
  5. 5 SJS 1 EDM 0
  6. 6 SJS 3 EDM 4
  7. 7 SJS 1 EDM 2
  8. 8 SJS 0 EDM 2
  9. 9 SJS 0 EDM 3
  10. 10 SJS 0 EDM 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Sharks win 47% of them, Oilers 53%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Sharks by 3+13.4%
Sharks by 29.8%
Sharks by 123.7%
Oilers by 125.2%
Oilers by 211.2%
Oilers by 3+16.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 goals to the Oilers: the final margin was Oilers by 1, without the luck Oilers by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Sharks2831.76+1.24
Oilers4432.82+0.18

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 15:21 Tripping on the Oilers (Evan Bouchard): 2 minutes on the power play +2% SJS
P2 6:19 High sticking on the Oilers (Mattias Ekholm): 2 minutes on the power play +1% SJS
P3 12:59 Delaying game puck over glass on the Sharks (Mario Ferraro): 2 minutes on the power play +2% EDM

When it happened

Oilers’ chance of winning

As low as 2% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Oilers were ahead in it, below while the Sharks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:34 Collin Graf scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 8% chance +15% SJS –
2 P1 18:25 Adam Gaudette scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 11% chance +13% SJS –
3 P1 8:20 Michael Misa scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 12% chance +9% SJS –
4 P3 18:26 Leon Draisaitl scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 22% chance +5% EDM –
5 P3 3:05 Connor McDavid scored on a snap shot from 28 feetShooting · 9% chance +8% EDM –
6 P3 1:48 Zach Hyman missed the net with a tip from 8 feetShooting · 11% chance +5% SJS –
7 P3 0:59 Evan Bouchard scored on a slap shot from 45 feetShooting · 6% chance +42% EDM –
8 OT The Oilers won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% EDM –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sharks 30% · Oilers 70%

Final margin
Oilers by 1
Luck in goals
0.2 for the Oilers
Luck-adjusted margin
Oilers by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Sharks 47% · Oilers 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 17 2025-26 games · Sharks · Oilers

More from week 17, 2025-26

Every game of week 17, 2025-26