luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 28, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Blue Jackets, Jan 28, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Blue Jackets beat the Flyers 5–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blue Jackets win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 43 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.

The biggest swing (P3, 3:28 left): Sean Monahan scored on a wrist shot from 7 feet, worth 36 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.

Final

Philadelphia Flyers 3
Columbus Blue Jackets 5

January 28, 2026 · Nationwide Arena

Luck index +60 Blue Jackets lucky · −60 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 6, Blue Jackets win 4.

  1. 1 PHI 8 CBJ 3
  2. 2 PHI 5 CBJ 2
  3. 3 PHI 4 CBJ 1
  4. 4 PHI 4 CBJ 2
  5. 5 PHI 4 CBJ 2
  6. 6 PHI 3 CBJ 2
  7. 7 PHI 2 CBJ 3
  8. 8 PHI 3 CBJ 4
  9. 9 PHI 1 CBJ 3
  10. 10 PHI 2 CBJ 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Flyers win 60% of them, Blue Jackets 40%. The line is what actually happened: Blue Jackets by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+30.3%
Flyers by 210.8%
Flyers by 118.7%
Blue Jackets by 120.0%
Blue Jackets by 28.0%
Blue Jackets by 3+12.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 goals to the Blue Jackets: the final margin was Blue Jackets by 2, without the luck Blue Jackets by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers4333.96−0.96
Blue Jackets4042.54+1.46

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 5:10 Hooking on the Flyers (Travis Sanheim): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CBJ
P1 1:40 Slashing on the Blue Jackets (Cole Sillinger): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P1 0:48 Too many men on the ice on the Flyers (PHI): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CBJ
P2 5:04 Holding the stick on the Blue Jackets (Dmitri Voronkov): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P3 19:18 Tripping on the Flyers (Christian Dvorak): 2 minutes on the power play +2% CBJ
P3 18:03 Hooking on the Blue Jackets (Mason Marchment): 2 minutes on the power play +2% PHI
P3 7:56 High sticking on the Blue Jackets (Kent Johnson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI
P3 0:12 Interference on the Blue Jackets (Erik Gudbranson): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PHI

When it happened

Blue Jackets’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blue Jackets were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:22 Charlie Coyle scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 16% chance +13% CBJ –
2 P1 10:57 Travis Konecny scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 12% chance +15% PHI –
3 P1 0:20 Kirill Marchenko scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 15% chance +16% CBJ –
4 P2 18:02 Erik Gudbranson scored on a slap shot from 59 feetShooting · 2% chance +14% CBJ –
5 P3 15:52 Travis Konecny scored on a wrist shot from 34 feetShooting · 7% chance +13% PHI –
6 P3 6:50 Trevor Zegras’s snap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 30% chance +11% CBJ –
7 P3 4:46 Travis Konecny scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 23% chance +29% PHI –
8 P3 3:28 Sean Monahan scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 11% chance +36% CBJ –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 36% · Blue Jackets 64%

Final margin
Blue Jackets by 2
Luck in goals
1.4 for the Blue Jackets
Luck-adjusted margin
Blue Jackets by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 60% · Blue Jackets 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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