luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 27, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Jets at Devils, Jan 27, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Devils 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Jets win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 20 points of win probability to the Jets.

The biggest swing (P2, 16:37 left): Gabriel Vilardi scored on a wrist shot from 38 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Winnipeg Jets 4
New Jersey Devils 3

January 27, 2026 · Prudential Center

Luck index +48 Jets lucky · −48 Devils

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 5, Devils win 5.

  1. 1 WPG 4 NJD 1
  2. 2 WPG 4 NJD 1
  3. 3 WPG 3 NJD 2
  4. 4 WPG 4 NJD 3
  5. 5 WPG 1 NJD 0
  6. 6 WPG 3 NJD 4
  7. 7 WPG 3 NJD 4
  8. 8 WPG 0 NJD 2
  9. 9 WPG 1 NJD 4
  10. 10 WPG 0 NJD 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 52% of them, Devils 48%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 3+18.2%
Jets by 210.5%
Jets by 122.9%
Devils by 122.0%
Devils by 210.4%
Devils by 3+16.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 goals to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 1, without the luck Jets by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Jets3742.35+1.65
Devils4132.71+0.29

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 6:25 Holding on the Devils (Simon Nemec): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P2 9:31 Holding on the Devils (Johnathan Kovacevic): 2 minutes on the power play +3% WPG
P2 2:21 Tripping on the Jets (Kyle Connor): 2 minutes on the power play +1% NJD
P3 6:00 Tripping on the Jets (Josh Morrissey): 2 minutes on the power play +2% NJD

When it happened

Devils’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Devils were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:27 Mark Scheifele scored on a wrist shot from 22 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% WPG –
2 P1 11:58 Lenni Hameenaho scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% NJD –
3 P1 6:25 Holding on the Devils (Simon Nemec): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% WPG –
4 P2 16:37 Gabriel Vilardi scored on a wrist shot from 38 feetShooting · 4% chance +19% WPG –
5 P2 12:09 Cole Koepke scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% WPG –
6 P2 3:18 Nino Niederreiter scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 8% chance +7% WPG –
7 P2 0:36 Jesper Bratt scored on a slap shot from 6 feetShooting · 35% chance +5% NJD –
8 P3 1:46 Nico Hischier scored on a tip from 15 feetShooting · 8% chance +6% NJD –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 65% · Devils 35%

Final margin
Jets by 1
Luck in goals
0.4 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Jets 52% · Devils 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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