2025-26 regular season · January 31, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Avalanche at Red Wings, Jan 31, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Avalanche beat the Red Wings 5–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 13:16 left): Brent Burns scored on a snap shot from 35 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Avalanche.
Final
 Colorado Avalanche | 5 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Red Wings | 0 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Avalanche lucky · −36 Red Wings
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Avalanche win 6, Red Wings win 4.
- 1 COL 6 DET 1
- 2 COL 5 DET 2
- 3 COL 4 DET 1
- 4 COL 4 DET 2
- 5 COL 2 DET 1
- 6 COL 3 DET 2
- 7 COL 2 DET 3
- 8 COL 2 DET 3
- 9 COL 3 DET 5
- 10 COL 1 DET 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Avalanche win 64% of them, Red Wings 36%. The line is what actually happened: Avalanche by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Avalanche by 3+ | 33.9% |
| Avalanche by 2 | 11.4% |
| Avalanche by 1 | 18.8% |
| Red Wings by 1 | 19.0% |
| Red Wings by 2 | 6.8% |
| Red Wings by 3+ | 10.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Avalanche | 46 | 5 | 3.38 | +1.62 |
 Red Wings | 43 | 0 | 2.38 | −2.38 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 12:29 | Holding on the Avalanche (Josh Manson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P1 4:15 | Tripping on the Avalanche (Parker Kelly): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% DET |
| P2 17:20 | Tripping on the Red Wings (Erik Gustafsson): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% COL |
| P2 2:47 | Tripping on the Red Wings (J.T. Compher): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% COL |
When it happened
Red Wings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:12 | Joel Kiviranta’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance | +3% DET | – |
| 2 | P1 13:16 | Brent Burns scored on a snap shot from 35 feetShooting · 6% chance | +16% COL | – |
| 3 | P1 12:29 | Holding on the Avalanche (Josh Manson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% DET | – |
| 4 | P1 9:57 | Nathan MacKinnon scored on a wrist shot from 57 feetShooting · 2% chance | +15% COL | – |
| 5 | P1 4:15 | Tripping on the Avalanche (Parker Kelly): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% DET | – |
| 6 | P2 18:36 | Ross Colton scored on a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 18% chance | +8% COL | – |
| 7 | P2 17:20 | Tripping on the Red Wings (Erik Gustafsson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +2% COL | – |
| 8 | P2 6:27 | Nathan MacKinnon scored on a slap shot from 18 feetShooting · 13% chance | +3% COL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Avalanche 90% · Red Wings 10%
- Final margin
- Avalanche by 5
- Luck in goals
- 3.0 for the Avalanche
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Avalanche by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Avalanche 64% · Red Wings 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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