2025-26 NHL season · Jan 19, 2026 – Jan 25, 2026

NHL week 16: who deserved to win

11 of 55 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Ducks beat the Avalanche 2–1 (SO) in a game they win 17% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 55 games.

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Ducks lucky 2

Avalanche unlucky 1 Long shot · Ducks win 17% of replays

Blackhawks lucky 4

Hurricanes unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Blackhawks win 25% of replays

Golden Knights unlucky 3

Bruins lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Bruins win 28% of replays

Flyers unlucky 4

Mammoth lucky 5 Replays favor loser · Mammoth win 29% of replays

Red Wings lucky 2

Maple Leafs unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Red Wings win 30% of replays

Ducks lucky 4

Flames unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Ducks win 35% of replays

Flyers lucky 2

Golden Knights unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Flyers win 35% of replays

Jets unlucky 0

Blackhawks lucky 2 Replays favor loser · Blackhawks win 36% of replays

Stars unlucky 0

Blue Jackets lucky 1 Replays favor loser · Blue Jackets win 39% of replays

Devils unlucky 2

Kraken lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Kraken win 39% of replays

Capitals unlucky 3

Canucks lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Canucks win 39% of replays

Panthers 2

Jets 1 Coin flip · Panthers win 41% of replays

Sabres 5

Predators 3 Coin flip · Sabres win 41% of replays

Blues 1

Jets 3 Coin flip · Jets win 42% of replays

Sabres 4

Canadiens 2 Coin flip · Sabres win 43% of replays

Hurricanes 4

Senators 1 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 43% of replays

Islanders 1

Kraken 4 Coin flip · Kraken win 45% of replays

Devils 2

Oilers 1 Coin flip · Devils win 46% of replays

Senators 4

Blue Jackets 1 Coin flip · Senators win 47% of replays

Sabres 5

Islanders 0 Coin flip · Sabres win 48% of replays

Senators 3

Predators 5 Coin flip · Predators win 48% of replays

Mammoth 5

Predators 2 Coin flip · Mammoth win 48% of replays

Flyers 7

Avalanche 3 Coin flip · Flyers win 49% of replays

Panthers 5

Blackhawks 1 Coin flip · Panthers win 50% of replays

Avalanche 4

Maple Leafs 1 Coin flip · Avalanche win 51% of replays

Blues 2

Stars 3 Coin flip · Stars win 52% of replays

Penguins 3

Canucks 2 Coin flip · Penguins win 52% of replays

Rangers 3

Kings 4 Coin flip · Kings win 52% of replays

Penguins 6

Oilers 2 Coin flip · Penguins win 53% of replays

Sharks 4

Panthers 1 Coin flip · Sharks win 53% of replays

Penguins 6

Kraken 3 Coin flip · Penguins win 53% of replays

Devils 2

Flames 1 Coin flip · Devils win 54% of replays

Kings 5

Blues 4 Coin flip · Kings win 54% of replays

Panthers 4

Wild 3 Coin flip · Panthers win 54% of replays

Rangers 3

Ducks 5 Coin flip · Ducks win 55% of replays

Devils 5

Canucks 4 Coin flip · Devils win 55% of replays

Islanders 4

Canucks 3 Coin flip · Islanders win 57% of replays

Red Wings 5

Jets 1 Coin flip · Red Wings win 57% of replays

Sabres 1

Hurricanes 2 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 58% of replays

Wild 3

Canadiens 4 Coin flip · Canadiens win 58% of replays

Red Wings 3

Wild 4 Coin flip · Wild win 58% of replays

Golden Knights 6

Maple Leafs 3 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 58% of replays

Golden Knights 1

Senators 7 Coin flip · Senators win 59% of replays

Ducks 4

Kraken 2 Coin flip · Ducks win 59% of replays

Lightning 5

Blue Jackets 8 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 60% of replays

Canadiens 3

Bruins 4 Replays agree · Bruins win 61% of replays

Penguins 4

Flames 1 Replays agree · Penguins win 61% of replays

Wild 6

Maple Leafs 3 Replays agree · Wild win 63% of replays

Bruins 2

Stars 6 Replays agree · Stars win 65% of replays

Capitals 2

Avalanche 5 Replays agree · Avalanche win 70% of replays

Capitals 5

Oilers 6 Replays agree · Oilers win 72% of replays

Sharks 1

Lightning 4 Replays agree · Lightning win 72% of replays

Rangers 1

Sharks 3 Replays agree · Sharks win 75% of replays

Capitals 3

Flames 1 Replays agree · Capitals win 76% of replays

Lightning 2

Blackhawks 1 Replays agree · Lightning win 78% of replays

Week 16 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.

#	Team	Game	Wins the replay	Luck index
1	Ducks	W 2–1 SO @ Avalanche Jan 21, 2026	17%	+83
2	Blackhawks	W 4–3 SO @ Hurricanes Jan 22, 2026	25%	+75
3	Bruins	W 4–3 vs Golden Knights Jan 22, 2026	28%	+72
4	Mammoth	W 5–4 OT vs Flyers Jan 21, 2026	29%	+71
5	Red Wings	W 2–1 OT @ Maple Leafs Jan 21, 2026	30%	+70
6	Ducks	W 4–3 OT @ Flames Jan 25, 2026	35%	+65
7	Flyers	W 2–1 @ Golden Knights Jan 19, 2026	35%	+65
8	Blackhawks	W 2–0 vs Jets Jan 19, 2026	36%	+64
9	Blue Jackets	W 1–0 vs Stars Jan 22, 2026	39%	+61
10	Kraken	W 4–2 vs Devils Jan 25, 2026	39%	+61
11	Canucks	W 4–3 vs Capitals Jan 21, 2026	39%	+61
12	Panthers	W 2–1 SO @ Jets Jan 22, 2026	41%	+59
13	Sabres	W 5–3 @ Predators Jan 20, 2026	41%	+59
14	Jets	W 3–1 vs Blues Jan 20, 2026	42%	+58
15	Sabres	W 4–2 @ Canadiens Jan 22, 2026	43%	+57
16	Hurricanes	W 4–1 @ Senators Jan 24, 2026	43%	+57
17	Kraken	W 4–1 vs Islanders Jan 21, 2026	45%	+55
18	Devils	W 2–1 @ Oilers Jan 20, 2026	46%	+54
19	Senators	W 4–1 @ Blue Jackets Jan 20, 2026	47%	+53
20	Sabres	W 5–0 @ Islanders Jan 24, 2026	48%	+52
21	Predators	W 5–3 vs Senators Jan 22, 2026	48%	+52
22	Mammoth	W 5–2 @ Predators Jan 24, 2026	48%	+52
23	Flyers	W 7–3 @ Avalanche Jan 23, 2026	49%	+51
24	Panthers	W 5–1 @ Blackhawks Jan 25, 2026	50%	+50
25	Avalanche	W 4–1 @ Maple Leafs Jan 25, 2026	51%	+49
26	Stars	W 3–2 vs Blues Jan 23, 2026	52%	+48
27	Penguins	W 3–2 @ Canucks Jan 25, 2026	52%	+48
28	Kings	W 4–3 vs Rangers Jan 20, 2026	52%	+48
29	Penguins	W 6–2 @ Oilers Jan 22, 2026	53%	+48
30	Sharks	W 4–1 @ Panthers Jan 19, 2026	53%	+47
31	Penguins	W 6–3 @ Kraken Jan 19, 2026	53%	+47
32	Devils	W 2–1 OT @ Flames Jan 19, 2026	54%	+46
33	Kings	W 5–4 SO @ Blues Jan 24, 2026	54%	+46
34	Panthers	W 4–3 OT @ Wild Jan 24, 2026	54%	+46
35	Ducks	W 5–3 vs Rangers Jan 19, 2026	55%	+45
36	Devils	W 5–4 @ Canucks Jan 23, 2026	55%	+45
37	Islanders	W 4–3 @ Canucks Jan 19, 2026	57%	+43
38	Red Wings	W 5–1 @ Jets Jan 24, 2026	57%	+43
39	Hurricanes	W 2–1 vs Sabres Jan 19, 2026	58%	+42
40	Canadiens	W 4–3 vs Wild Jan 20, 2026	58%	+42
41	Wild	W 4–3 OT vs Red Wings Jan 22, 2026	58%	+42
42	Golden Knights	W 6–3 @ Maple Leafs Jan 23, 2026	58%	+42
43	Senators	W 7–1 vs Golden Knights Jan 25, 2026	59%	+41
44	Ducks	W 4–2 @ Kraken Jan 23, 2026	59%	+41
45	Blue Jackets	W 8–5 vs Lightning Jan 24, 2026	60%	+40
46	Bruins	W 4–3 vs Canadiens Jan 24, 2026	61%	+39
47	Penguins	W 4–1 @ Flames Jan 21, 2026	61%	+39
48	Wild	W 6–3 @ Maple Leafs Jan 19, 2026	63%	+37
49	Stars	W 6–2 vs Bruins Jan 20, 2026	65%	+35
50	Avalanche	W 5–2 vs Capitals Jan 19, 2026	70%	+30
51	Oilers	W 6–5 OT vs Capitals Jan 24, 2026	72%	+28
52	Lightning	W 4–1 vs Sharks Jan 20, 2026	72%	+28
53	Sharks	W 3–1 vs Rangers Jan 23, 2026	75%	+25
54	Capitals	W 3–1 @ Flames Jan 23, 2026	76%	+24
55	Lightning	W 2–1 SO @ Blackhawks Jan 23, 2026	78%	+22
56	Blackhawks	L 1–2 SO vs Lightning Jan 23, 2026	22%	−22
57	Flames	L 1–3 vs Capitals Jan 23, 2026	24%	−24
58	Rangers	L 1–3 @ Sharks Jan 23, 2026	25%	−25
59	Sharks	L 1–4 @ Lightning Jan 20, 2026	28%	−28
60	Capitals	L 5–6 OT @ Oilers Jan 24, 2026	28%	−28
61	Capitals	L 2–5 @ Avalanche Jan 19, 2026	30%	−30
62	Bruins	L 2–6 @ Stars Jan 20, 2026	35%	−35
63	Maple Leafs	L 3–6 vs Wild Jan 19, 2026	37%	−37
64	Flames	L 1–4 vs Penguins Jan 21, 2026	39%	−39
65	Canadiens	L 3–4 @ Bruins Jan 24, 2026	39%	−39
66	Lightning	L 5–8 @ Blue Jackets Jan 24, 2026	40%	−40
67	Kraken	L 2–4 vs Ducks Jan 23, 2026	41%	−41
68	Golden Knights	L 1–7 @ Senators Jan 25, 2026	41%	−41
69	Maple Leafs	L 3–6 vs Golden Knights Jan 23, 2026	42%	−42
70	Red Wings	L 3–4 OT @ Wild Jan 22, 2026	42%	−42
71	Sabres	L 1–2 @ Hurricanes Jan 19, 2026	42%	−42
72	Wild	L 3–4 @ Canadiens Jan 20, 2026	42%	−42
73	Jets	L 1–5 vs Red Wings Jan 24, 2026	43%	−43
74	Canucks	L 3–4 vs Islanders Jan 19, 2026	43%	−43
75	Canucks	L 4–5 vs Devils Jan 23, 2026	45%	−45
76	Rangers	L 3–5 @ Ducks Jan 19, 2026	45%	−45
77	Wild	L 3–4 OT vs Panthers Jan 24, 2026	46%	−46
78	Blues	L 4–5 SO vs Kings Jan 24, 2026	46%	−46
79	Flames	L 1–2 OT vs Devils Jan 19, 2026	46%	−46
80	Kraken	L 3–6 vs Penguins Jan 19, 2026	47%	−47
81	Panthers	L 1–4 vs Sharks Jan 19, 2026	47%	−47
82	Oilers	L 2–6 vs Penguins Jan 22, 2026	48%	−48
83	Rangers	L 3–4 @ Kings Jan 20, 2026	48%	−48
84	Canucks	L 2–3 vs Penguins Jan 25, 2026	48%	−48
85	Blues	L 2–3 @ Stars Jan 23, 2026	48%	−48
86	Maple Leafs	L 1–4 vs Avalanche Jan 25, 2026	49%	−49
87	Blackhawks	L 1–5 vs Panthers Jan 25, 2026	50%	−50
88	Avalanche	L 3–7 vs Flyers Jan 23, 2026	51%	−51
89	Predators	L 2–5 vs Mammoth Jan 24, 2026	52%	−52
90	Senators	L 3–5 @ Predators Jan 22, 2026	52%	−52
91	Islanders	L 0–5 vs Sabres Jan 24, 2026	52%	−52
92	Blue Jackets	L 1–4 vs Senators Jan 20, 2026	53%	−53
93	Oilers	L 1–2 vs Devils Jan 20, 2026	54%	−54
94	Islanders	L 1–4 @ Kraken Jan 21, 2026	55%	−55
95	Senators	L 1–4 vs Hurricanes Jan 24, 2026	57%	−57
96	Canadiens	L 2–4 vs Sabres Jan 22, 2026	57%	−57
97	Blues	L 1–3 @ Jets Jan 20, 2026	58%	−58
98	Predators	L 3–5 vs Sabres Jan 20, 2026	59%	−59
99	Jets	L 1–2 SO vs Panthers Jan 22, 2026	59%	−59
100	Capitals	L 3–4 @ Canucks Jan 21, 2026	61%	−61
101	Devils	L 2–4 @ Kraken Jan 25, 2026	61%	−61
102	Stars	L 0–1 @ Blue Jackets Jan 22, 2026	61%	−61
103	Jets	L 0–2 @ Blackhawks Jan 19, 2026	64%	−64
104	Golden Knights	L 1–2 vs Flyers Jan 19, 2026	65%	−65
105	Flames	L 3–4 OT vs Ducks Jan 25, 2026	65%	−65
106	Maple Leafs	L 1–2 OT vs Red Wings Jan 21, 2026	70%	−70
107	Flyers	L 4–5 OT @ Mammoth Jan 21, 2026	71%	−71
108	Golden Knights	L 3–4 @ Bruins Jan 22, 2026	72%	−72
109	Hurricanes	L 3–4 SO vs Blackhawks Jan 22, 2026	75%	−75
110	Avalanche	L 1–2 SO vs Ducks Jan 21, 2026	83%	−83