luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 20, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Blues at Jets, Jan 20, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Blues 3–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Jets win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 24 points of win probability to the Jets.

The biggest swing (P1, 10:08 left): Josh Morrissey scored on a slap shot from 53 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

St. Louis Blues 1
Winnipeg Jets 3

January 20, 2026 · Canada Life Centre

Luck index +58 Jets lucky · −58 Blues

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Blues win 6, Jets win 4.

  1. 1 STL 5 WPG 1
  2. 2 STL 3 WPG 0
  3. 3 STL 4 WPG 2
  4. 4 STL 3 WPG 1
  5. 5 STL 3 WPG 2
  6. 6 STL 2 WPG 1
  7. 7 STL 1 WPG 2
  8. 8 STL 1 WPG 2
  9. 9 STL 1 WPG 3
  10. 10 STL 1 WPG 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Blues win 58% of them, Jets 42%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Blues by 3+22.0%
Blues by 212.3%
Blues by 123.6%
Jets by 123.1%
Jets by 28.7%
Jets by 3+10.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 goals to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 2, without the luck Jets by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Blues4512.56−1.56
Jets3321.80+0.20

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:21 High sticking double minor on the Blues (Nathan Walker): 4 minutes on the power play +8% WPG
P1 0:32 Slashing on the Jets (Jonathan Toews): 2 minutes on the power play +3% STL
P2 3:25 High sticking double minor on the Jets (Vladislav Namestnikov): 4 minutes on the power play +5% STL
P3 17:33 Holding on the Blues (Dalibor Dvorsky): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WPG
P3 13:19 High sticking on the Jets (Isaak Phillips): 2 minutes on the power play +5% STL

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Blues were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 11:21 High sticking double minor on the Blues (Nathan Walker): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% WPG –
2 P1 10:08 Josh Morrissey scored on a slap shot from 53 feetShooting · 4% chance +16% WPG –
3 P1 8:35 Mark Scheifele scored on a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 17% chance +11% WPG –
4 P2 3:25 High sticking double minor on the Jets (Vladislav Namestnikov): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% STL –
5 P2 2:37 Jordan Kyrou scored on a slap shot from 39 feetShooting · 8% chance +14% STL –
6 P3 17:33 Holding on the Blues (Dalibor Dvorsky): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% WPG –
7 P3 13:19 High sticking on the Jets (Isaak Phillips): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% STL –
8 P3 13:12 Pavel Buchnevich’s wrist shot from 12 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance +4% WPG –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Blues 44% · Jets 56%

Final margin
Jets by 2
Luck in goals
1.8 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Blues 58% · Jets 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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