luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 22, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Senators at Predators, Jan 22, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Predators beat the Senators 5–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Predators win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 37 points of win probability to the Predators.

The biggest swing (P3, 1:13 left): Steven Stamkos scored on a bat shot from 3 feet, worth 34 points of win probability to the Predators.

Final

Ottawa Senators 3
Nashville Predators 5

January 22, 2026 · Bridgestone Arena

Luck index +52 Predators lucky · −52 Senators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Senators win 5, Predators win 5.

  1. 1 OTT 6 NSH 2
  2. 2 OTT 4 NSH 1
  3. 3 OTT 3 NSH 1
  4. 4 OTT 3 NSH 2
  5. 5 OTT 3 NSH 2
  6. 6 OTT 3 NSH 4
  7. 7 OTT 4 NSH 5
  8. 8 OTT 2 NSH 4
  9. 9 OTT 2 NSH 5
  10. 10 OTT 2 NSH 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Senators win 52% of them, Predators 48%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Senators by 3+21.7%
Senators by 210.1%
Senators by 120.5%
Predators by 121.3%
Predators by 29.0%
Predators by 3+17.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 goals to the Predators: the final margin was Predators by 2, without the luck Predators by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Senators3933.09−0.09
Predators4242.81+1.19

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 19:27 Slashing on the Senators (Artem Zub): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NSH
P2 5:55 Boarding on the Predators (Ozzy Wiesblatt): 2 minutes on the power play +1% OTT
P2 1:56 Hooking on the Senators (Jordan Spence): 2 minutes on the power play +1% NSH
P2 0:06 Hooking on the Predators (Steven Stamkos): 2 minutes on the power play +3% OTT
P3 15:46 High sticking double minor on the Senators (Fabian Zetterlund): 4 minutes on the power play +5% NSH
P3 10:21 Cross checking on the Senators (Tim Stützle): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NSH
P3 9:28 Hooking on the Predators (Michael McCarron): 2 minutes on the power play +8% OTT

When it happened

Predators’ chance of winning

As low as 3% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Predators were ahead in it, below while the Senators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:57 Stephen Halliday scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 15% chance +14% OTT –
2 P1 5:41 Ridly Greig scored on a wrist shot from 3 feetShooting · 31% chance +11% OTT –
3 P2 9:14 Brady Tkachuk scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 10% chance +8% OTT –
4 P2 1:26 Steven Stamkos scored on a slap shot from 22 feetShooting · 27% chance +6% NSH –
5 P3 11:41 Jonathan Marchessault scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 23% chance +11% NSH –
6 P3 9:53 Steven Stamkos scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 17% chance +27% NSH –
7 P3 9:28 Hooking on the Predators (Michael McCarron): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% OTT –
8 P3 1:13 Steven Stamkos scored on a bat shot from 3 feetShooting · 22% chance +34% NSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Senators 39% · Predators 61%

Final margin
Predators by 2
Luck in goals
1.5 for the Predators
Luck-adjusted margin
Predators by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Senators 52% · Predators 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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