luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 21, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Mammoth, Jan 21, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Mammoth beat the Flyers 5–4, but the replays lean toward the Flyers: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

The biggest swing (OT): the Mammoth won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

Final (OT)

Philadelphia Flyers 4
Utah Mammoth 5

January 21, 2026 · Delta Center

Luck index +71 Mammoth very lucky · −71 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 7, Mammoth win 3.

  1. 1 PHI 7 UTA 1
  2. 2 PHI 6 UTA 2
  3. 3 PHI 3 UTA 0
  4. 4 PHI 8 UTA 5
  5. 5 PHI 3 UTA 1
  6. 6 PHI 5 UTA 4
  7. 7 PHI 4 UTA 3
  8. 8 PHI 2 UTA 3
  9. 9 PHI 2 UTA 3
  10. 10 PHI 4 UTA 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Flyers win 71% of them, Mammoth 29%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+44.6%
Flyers by 210.1%
Flyers by 115.8%
Mammoth by 116.9%
Mammoth by 25.5%
Mammoth by 3+7.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 goals to the Mammoth: the final margin was Mammoth by 1, without the luck Flyers by 1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers4743.94+0.06
Mammoth4942.61+1.39

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:21 Delaying game puck over glass on the Flyers (Nick Seeler): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P1 17:42 Hooking on the Mammoth (Barrett Hayton): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P1 14:42 Cross checking on the Mammoth (Liam O'Brien): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P1 0:00 High sticking on the Mammoth (Nick Schmaltz): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P2 10:25 Too many men on the ice on the Mammoth (UTA): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 9:00 Hooking on the Mammoth (JJ Peterka): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P2 5:06 Hooking on the Flyers (Nick Seeler): 2 minutes on the power play +3% UTA
P2 0:08 High sticking on the Mammoth (Ian Cole): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P3 8:11 Roughing on the Flyers (Noah Juulsen): 2 minutes on the power play +2% UTA

When it happened

Mammoth’ chance of winning

As low as 4% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Mammoth were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:30 Cam York scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 17% chance +13% PHI –
2 P1 15:24 Christian Dvorak scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 18% chance +12% PHI –
3 P2 19:02 Bobby Brink scored on a wrist shot from 4 feetShooting · 25% chance +8% PHI –
4 P2 13:49 Lawson Crouse scored on a slap shot from 29 feetShooting · 14% chance +14% UTA –
5 P2 9:32 Christian Dvorak scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% PHI –
6 P3 7:13 Dylan Guenther scored on a tip from 47 feetShooting · 1% chance +12% UTA –
7 P3 0:35 Clayton Keller scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 16% chance +39% UTA –
8 OT The Mammoth won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% UTA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 70% · Mammoth 30%

Final margin
Mammoth by 1
Luck in goals
2.0 for the Mammoth
Luck-adjusted margin
Flyers by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 71% · Mammoth 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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