luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 19, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Jets at Blackhawks, Jan 19, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Blackhawks beat the Jets 2–0, but the replays lean toward the Jets: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 60 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.

The biggest swing (P2, 6:39 left): Jason Dickinson scored on a wrist shot from 33 feet, worth 21 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.

Final

Winnipeg Jets 0
Chicago Blackhawks 2

January 19, 2026 · United Center

Luck index +64 Blackhawks very lucky · −64 Jets

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 6, Blackhawks win 4.

  1. 1 WPG 5 CHI 1
  2. 2 WPG 5 CHI 2
  3. 3 WPG 4 CHI 1
  4. 4 WPG 5 CHI 3
  5. 5 WPG 6 CHI 5
  6. 6 WPG 5 CHI 4
  7. 7 WPG 1 CHI 2
  8. 8 WPG 2 CHI 3
  9. 9 WPG 4 CHI 6
  10. 10 WPG 2 CHI 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Jets win 64% of them, Blackhawks 36%. The line is what actually happened: Blackhawks by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 3+29.4%
Jets by 212.0%
Jets by 122.2%
Blackhawks by 120.2%
Blackhawks by 27.1%
Blackhawks by 3+9.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 goals to the Blackhawks: the final margin was Blackhawks by 2, without the luck Jets by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Jets4903.53−3.53
Blackhawks3611.88−0.88

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 7:47 Slashing on the Jets (Nino Niederreiter): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P1 7:10 Holding on the Jets (Luke Schenn): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P1 4:39 Interference on the Blackhawks (Louis Crevier): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P2 3:15 Tripping on the Jets (Cole Perfetti): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P3 13:25 Slashing on the Blackhawks (Ryan Donato): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WPG

When it happened

Blackhawks’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blackhawks were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 3:22 Jonathan Toews missed the net with a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 21% chanceMark Scheifele hit the left post with a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 17% chance +7% CHI –
2 P2 6:39 Jason Dickinson scored on a wrist shot from 33 feetShooting · 7% chance +21% CHI –
3 P2 3:57 Gabriel Vilardi’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance +4% CHI –
4 P2 3:15 Tripping on the Jets (Cole Perfetti): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CHI –
5 P3 13:57 Alex Iafallo’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +6% CHI –
6 P3 13:25 Slashing on the Blackhawks (Ryan Donato): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% WPG –
7 P3 12:31 Gabriel Vilardi’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 24% chance +7% CHI –
8 P3 1:29 Jonathan Toews missed the net with a wrist shot from 4 feetShooting · 19% chance +8% CHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 59% · Blackhawks 41%

Final margin
Blackhawks by 2
Luck in goals
2.5 for the Blackhawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Jets 64% · Blackhawks 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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