luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 21, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Ducks at Avalanche, Jan 21, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Ducks beat the Avalanche 2–1, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Avalanche win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Ducks.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Ducks won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Ducks.

Final (SO)

Anaheim Ducks 2
Colorado Avalanche 1

January 21, 2026 · Ball Arena

Luck index +83 Ducks very lucky · −83 Avalanche

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ducks win 2, Avalanche win 8.

  1. 1 ANA 3 COL 2
  2. 2 ANA 3 COL 2
  3. 3 ANA 2 COL 3
  4. 4 ANA 2 COL 3
  5. 5 ANA 4 COL 7
  6. 6 ANA 1 COL 4
  7. 7 ANA 0 COL 3
  8. 8 ANA 0 COL 4
  9. 9 ANA 0 COL 5
  10. 10 ANA 0 COL 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Ducks win 17% of them, Avalanche 83%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ducks by 3+1.8%
Ducks by 22.9%
Ducks by 111.9%
Avalanche by 114.3%
Avalanche by 211.6%
Avalanche by 3+57.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 goals to the Ducks: the final margin was Ducks by 1, without the luck Avalanche by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Ducks2511.13−0.13
Avalanche5413.94−2.94

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:17 Tripping on the Ducks (Ross Johnston): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P1 7:10 Holding on the Avalanche (Jack Drury): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P2 1:58 Holding on the Ducks (Drew Helleson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% COL

When it happened

Avalanche’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Avalanche were ahead in it, below while the Ducks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 18:33 Jeffrey Viel scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 6% chance +18% ANA –
2 P3 19:53 Valeri Nichushkin missed the net with a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 23% chance +6% ANA –
3 P3 18:07 Gavin Brindley’s snap shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance +6% ANA –
4 P3 8:40 Brock Nelson’s snap shot from 14 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance +6% ANA –
5 P3 5:09 Jack Drury’s snap shot from 11 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance +7% ANA –
6 P3 3:39 Artturi Lehkonen scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 9% chance +37% COL –
7 P3 0:32 Brock Nelson’s snap shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance +8% ANA –
8 SO The game turned hereThe Ducks won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% ANA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ducks 10% · Avalanche 90%

Final margin
Ducks by 1
Luck in goals
3.1 for the Ducks
Luck-adjusted margin
Avalanche by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Ducks 17% · Avalanche 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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