luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 25, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Ducks at Flames, Jan 25, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Ducks beat the Flames 4–3, but the replays lean toward the Flames: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Ducks.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Ducks won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Ducks.

Final (OT)

Anaheim Ducks 4
Calgary Flames 3

January 25, 2026 · Scotiabank Saddledome

Luck index +65 Ducks very lucky · −65 Flames

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ducks win 3, Flames win 7.

  1. 1 ANA 3 CGY 1
  2. 2 ANA 4 CGY 3
  3. 3 ANA 3 CGY 2
  4. 4 ANA 1 CGY 2
  5. 5 ANA 1 CGY 2
  6. 6 ANA 2 CGY 4
  7. 7 ANA 0 CGY 3
  8. 8 ANA 1 CGY 4
  9. 9 ANA 1 CGY 5
  10. 10 ANA 0 CGY 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Ducks win 35% of them, Flames 65%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ducks by 3+7.7%
Ducks by 26.7%
Ducks by 120.2%
Flames by 122.2%
Flames by 212.3%
Flames by 3+30.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 goals to the Ducks: the final margin was Ducks by 1, without the luck Flames by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Ducks3731.73+1.27
Flames4732.82+0.18

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 2:21 High sticking on the Flames (Yan Kuznetsov): 2 minutes on the power play +3% ANA
P2 1:15 Holding on the Flames (Justin Kirkland): 2 minutes on the power play +6% ANA
P3 16:23 Slashing on the Ducks (Drew Helleson): 2 minutes on the power play +6% CGY

When it happened

Flames’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flames were ahead in it, below while the Ducks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:43 Jonathan Huberdeau scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 20% chance +13% CGY –
2 P1 12:04 Hunter Brzustewicz scored on a wrist shot from 47 feetShooting · 2% chance +13% CGY –
3 P2 16:38 Beckett Sennecke scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 15% chance +12% ANA –
4 P2 7:19 Beckett Sennecke scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 9% chance +20% ANA –
5 P3 15:53 Nazem Kadri missed the net with a deflected shot from 3 feetShooting · 24% chance +6% ANA –
6 P3 15:10 Matt Coronato scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 17% chance +23% CGY –
7 P3 6:52 Chris Kreider scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 11% chance +31% ANA –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Ducks won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% ANA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ducks 30% · Flames 70%

Final margin
Ducks by 1
Luck in goals
1.8 for the Ducks
Luck-adjusted margin
Flames by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Ducks 35% · Flames 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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